US and Lithuania sign critical minerals pact
The pact can redirect and expand future supply of critical minerals linked to the United States and Lithuania.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Cobalt and battery minerals, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Rare-earth elements (NdPr) →supply upThe U.S.-Lithuania framework is explicitly aimed at securing and financing critical-minerals supply chains, and NdPr is a high-dependency input to rare earth magnets, so more NdPr supply should lift magnet availability.
61% confidenceChina Minmetals Rare Earth Co. →supply upThis pact can redirect future critical-minerals supply toward alternative sources, making dysprosium more available despite the slow replacement cycle and China Minmetals' meaningful market share.
47% confidenceChina Minmetals Rare Earth Co. →supply upThe U.S.-Lithuania framework is meant to secure and expand future critical-minerals supply, which can make terbium more available over time, though long replacement lead times limit near-term impact.
46% confidenceChina Minmetals Rare Earth Co. →supply upRare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb)
Because the framework is explicitly aimed at future critical-minerals project funding and supply-chain security, the broad rare-earth oxide pool becomes more available, though the effect is indirect and gradual.
44% confidenceMineral Resources Limited (MinRes) →supply upLithium Hydroxide (Battery Grade)MIN
The U.S.-Lithuania framework is aimed at securing future critical-mineral supply chains, and MinRes has a modeled dependency on battery-grade lithium hydroxide, so added supply would ease that input, though the 7% share keeps the effect modest.
34% confidenceHop 2
Dysprosium (Dy) Metal →supply upDysprosium is a critical input to rare earth magnets with very high dependency strength, so any net-new dysprosium supply from the pact should raise magnet availability.
80% confidenceTerbium (Tb) Metal →supply upTerbium is a critical input to rare earth magnets with high dependency strength (0.85), so a pact that expands future critical-mineral supply should make magnet supply more available.
78% confidenceRare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) →supply upHop 3
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →supply upNdPr oxide/metal is a critical 0.98-dependency input to rare earth magnets, so expanding its future supply should directly raise magnet availability.
94% confidenceHome appliances →supply upRare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb)
The pact is explicitly about expanding future supply of critical minerals, and rare earth oxides are the direct critical-mineral input in this appliance chain.
84% confidenceNeodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →supply up