Critical US export controls for civil nuclear power projects

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from TENEX (JSC Techsnabexport), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   JSC TENEX (Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation) →Shortage risk

   Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel

   TENEX is a major LEU supplier on this edge (35% share, 60-month replacement lead time, low substitutability), so export controls that curb Rosatom/TENEX civil-nuclear project activity would likely tighten LEU availability.

   57% confidence

   TENEX (JSC Techsnabexport) →Shortage risk

   Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel

   TENEX supplies a sizable share of LEU and replacement is slow, so tighter nuclear trade controls can meaningfully constrain LEU availability.

   44% confidence

   Constellation Energy (Everett LNG) →Shortage risk

   Microsoft Corporation

2. Hop 2

   Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel →Prices rise

   Electricity (residential)

   Low-enriched uranium is a critical nuclear fuel input, so tighter supply would raise generation costs and likely push residential electricity prices higher even if the broader grid prevents immediate shortages.

   74% confidence

   Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel →Shortage risk

   United States

   The U.S. supplies 10% of LEU, so a U.S. export-control tightening can directly curtail that slice of supply, though the market share is modest.

   66% confidence

   Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel →Prices rise

   Residential Electricity