Riazan oil refinery is on fire
A fire at the Ryazan oil refinery could disrupt output of refined petroleum products.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from TogliattiAzot (ToAZ), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline Company depends on this transport capacity as a sole-qualified, low-substitutability input with a long replacement lead time, so the incident directly constrains it.
96% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskJet fuel is marked as a critical input with 0.9 dependency on Colonial Pipeline transport capacity, so reduced throughput tightens jet fuel availability.
89% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskThe graph assigns a 92% U.S. supply share to this transport capacity, so a disruption can constrain U.S. availability.
74% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Stands to benefitKinder Morgan has a meaningful share of the same transport-capacity market and short replacement lead time, so it can benefit from volumes displaced by Colonial's disruption.
68% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Stands to benefitBuckeye is another alternative capacity provider with nontrivial market share and short lead time, so it can pick up some displaced demand.
63% confidenceHop 2
Buckeye Partners, L.P. →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline transport capacity
Buckeye directly depends on Colonial Pipeline transport capacity, but the exposure is limited by a 5% share and some substitutability, so a rupture-driven capacity loss would cause a modest input shortage.
79% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysPipeline and terminal storage
A fire and rupture at a pipeline substation directly disrupts the pipeline-and-terminal-storage stage that moves jet fuel, stretching lead times and reducing throughput.
68% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel
Companies you may own
Colonial Pipeline CompanyKMIBuckeye Partners, L.P.
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
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