U.S. president signs 15% tariff on products derived from polysilicon
The tariff changes trade flows and costs for polysilicon-derived products.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Solar-Grade Polysilicon, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Solar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Prices easeChina's 91% supply share means the tariff squarely targets the dominant supplying country, pressuring Chinese pricing and sales volumes.
88% confidenceTongwei Co., Ltd. →Prices riseSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity)
Tongwei's 26% share of this polysilicon input and the 12-month replacement lead time imply the tariff/price floor would materially raise delivered prices with limited near-term substitution.
84% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Prices easeTongwei Co., Ltd.600438.SS
With a 26% share of solar-grade polysilicon supply and low substitutability, Tongwei is exposed to tariff-driven loss of U.S. sales and downward pressure on realized prices.
82% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Prices easeGCL Technology Holdings3800.HK
GCL's 20% supply share and limited substitutability make it a major Chinese incumbent likely to face tariff-driven price pressure and weaker U.S. demand.
80% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Stands to benefitEven with a small global share, Hemlock should benefit as a protected domestic producer when Chinese supply is constrained by tariffs and price floors.
79% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Stands to benefitWacker Chemie AGWCH.DE
Wacker's non-Chinese supply position and 6% share make it a likely beneficiary of tariff protection against Chinese undercutting.
78% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Prices easeDaqo's 12% share and 12-month replacement horizon leave it vulnerable to tariff-induced price compression and lost access to U.S. buyers.
77% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Prices easeXinte Energy1799.HK
Xinte's 10% share and moderate substitutability mean tariff pressure can still push down its export pricing and market access.
75% confidenceREC Silicon →Prices riseElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
The tariff and price floor directly target polysilicon used in chips, so REC Silicon’s semiconductor-grade polysilicon input should become more expensive, though the edge’s low share limits the size of the hit.
72% confidenceREC Silicon →Prices riseThe same tariff/price-floor policy also covers solar polysilicon, but this edge is highly substitutable and small, so the upward cost pressure on REC Silicon is more limited.
67% confidenceHop 2
Electronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers) →Prices risePolysilicon is marked as a critical 0.7-dependency input, so a tariff-driven price floor passes through as higher chip input costs.
88% confidenceGCL Technology Holdings →Prices riseSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity)
GCL is a major supplier of 9N solar-grade polysilicon, so a tariff on Chinese polysilicon would raise the landed cost of this grade and tighten its available supply, especially with a 20% share and 12-month replacement lead time.
83% confidenceDaqo New Energy Corp. →Prices riseHop 3
Semiconductors and chips →Prices riseElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
A tariff/price floor on Chinese polysilicon directly raises the cost of this critical semiconductor feedstock, so the input becomes more expensive for chip makers.
94% confidence