Halt in Russian crude imports could raise costs for Indian refiners

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Rosneft →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Rosneft is a direct supplier of crude oil feedstock, so a halt in Russian crude imports would tighten that supply; the impact is moderated by the edge’s low 4% share and some substitutability.

   71% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude oil feedstock is a critical input, so a supply halt directly tightens gasoline and diesel availability.

   98% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   With crude feedstock constrained, output of home heating oil tightens as well.

   97% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Prices rise

   Irving Oil

   Low substitutability and a six-month replacement lead time make Irving Oil's crude input costs rise when feedstock tightens.

3. Hop 3

   Home heating oil →Delays

   Terminal Storage & Distribution Network

   A tighter home heating oil supply slows tank turnover and allocation through storage and distribution, stretching logistics lead times.

   81% confidence

   Irving Oil →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Irving Oil depends on crude oil feedstock, and the low substitutability plus six-month replacement lead time mean a Russian crude disruption can tighten that input supply for the company.

   80% confidence

   Home heating oil →Shortage risk

   Last-Mile Delivery to Consumers

   With less heating oil available, deliveries to end users become constrained and some shipments are deferred or rationed.

   76% confidence

4. Hop 4

   Shell plc →Stands to benefit

   Talos Energy, Inc.TALO

   Shell Trading (US) accounts for 35% of Talos's oil, natural gas and NGL revenues, so Talos has the clearest upside if Shell increases non-Russian crude purchases.

   36% confidence

   Shell plc →Stands to benefit

   Crescent Energy CompanyCRGY

   Shell Trading US represents 21.4% of Crescent's revenue, making Crescent a plausible beneficiary if Shell leans more on non-Russian crude sources.

   34% confidence

   Shell plc →Stands to benefit

   Diamondback Energy, Inc.