Diesel: the impact of the US embargo and pressure on the vote
A US embargo on diesel can constrain diesel supply and trade flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gasoline and diesel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gasoline and diesel →Prices easeA diesel export embargo can force refiners to cut runs once inventories fill, lowering crude feedstock demand.
88% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical input to the gasoline/diesel pool, and a diesel export embargo that cuts refinery utilization would tighten that product supply.
88% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeLower refinery utilization cuts hydrotreating and hydrocracking demand, easing refinery-grade hydrogen demand.
72% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskA U.S. diesel export ban can force refiners to cut crude runs, which reduces output of other fuels; that makes the downstream jet-fuel output linked to this crude-import node tighter.
66% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →DelaysColonial Pipeline transport capacity
Jet fuel depends heavily on Colonial Pipeline transport capacity, and a diesel embargo that constrains refined-product trade flows can spill into shared pipeline scheduling and delay jet fuel distribution.
37% confidenceHop 3
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline Company is the sole qualified supplier on this edge, so a constraint in Colonial Pipeline transport capacity directly and severely constrains the company.
95% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskThe United States accounts for 92% of this node's supply share, so a transport-capacity shock is likely to propagate into a major domestic shortage.
89% confidenceHop 4
Colonial Pipeline Company →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline transport capacity
If Colonial Pipeline Company is constrained by the diesel shock, its pipeline transport capacity becomes scarcer, and the edge is high-weight because it is a sole qualified supplier with low substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time.
88% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Jet fuel
Companies you may own
Colonial Pipeline Company
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