India's crude oil output falls for third straight year

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Canadian crude oil imports →supply up

   Jet fuel

   If lower Indian crude output shifts more supply into this import node, the 0.75 dependency to jet fuel should lift jet fuel availability.

   72% confidence

   Canadian crude oil imports →Stands to benefit

   Canada

   Canada is the dominant source share on this import node, so higher crude import demand would benefit the Canadian supplier side.

   68% confidence

   Indian Oil Corporation (LAB) →Shortage risk

   Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate (LAS/LABSA)

   A sustained crude-output decline can modestly constrain Indian Oil’s ability to supply LAS/LABSA, but the effect is limited by the edge’s low 4% share and moderate substitutability.

   47% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate (LAS/LABSA) →Shortage risk

   Cleaning and sanitation supplies

   LAS/LABSA is a critical, high-dependency input for cleaning and sanitation supplies, so a LAS/LABSA shortage transmits strongly as downstream scarcity.

   93% confidence

   Jet fuel →Shortage risk

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Jet fuel is critically dependent on this crude feedstock, so a crude production decline tightens the availability of this key upstream input.

   56% confidence

3. Hop 3

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock is a critical input to jet fuel (dependency_strength 0.95), so a shortage here directly constrains jet fuel production.

   94% confidence