Two oil tankers attacked near the mouth of the Ormuz Strait

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock is marked critical with 0.95 dependency strength, so a crude shipping disruption should pass through as a direct shortage of jet fuel.

   96% confidence

   Panamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight →Delays

   Potash and phosphate fertilizers

   Hormuz-linked dry bulk disruption constrains Panamax/Capesize freight, which delays bulk fertilizer shipments.

   82% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   ExxonMobilXOM

   ExxonMobil relies on this Gulf Coast feedstock for refining, and its 9% share makes it meaningfully exposed to a supply squeeze.

2. Hop 2

   Jet fuel →Prices rise

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Hormuz tanker attacks tighten global crude supply, making the crude feedstock used for jet fuel more expensive.

   91% confidence

   Jet fuel →Delays

   Crude oil sourcing

   A chokepoint disruption to crude tanker traffic slows upstream crude sourcing for jet fuel production.

   88% confidence

   Jet fuel →Delays

   Refining and hydrotreatment

   Less reliable crude arrivals can slow refinery throughput and hydrotreatment runs that produce jet fuel.

   81% confidence