Putin confirms deal with Trump for crude oil supply to the U.S. and world market

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude oil feedstock is the critical direct input for gasoline and diesel, so added crude supply should raise their available output.

   98% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil is also directly tied to crude feedstock, so a supply increase should make it more available.

   97% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Stands to benefit

   Irving Oil

   Low substitutability and a six-month replacement lead time make Irving Oil relatively exposed to crude availability, so easier supply should help it.

2. Hop 2

   Home heating oil →supply up

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   Home heating oil is fully dependent on crude oil feedstock, so a new crude supply deal directly raises availability of that input.

   86% confidence

   Jet fuel →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Jet fuel is highly dependent on this critical crude feedstock, so additional crude supply should directly ease the input constraint and raise availability.

   84% confidence

   Gasoline and diesel →supply up

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   A confirmed crude-oil supply deal directly raises availability of the sole, critical feedstock gasoline and diesel depend on, so this upstream input benefits strongly if the flow materializes.

3. Hop 3

   Shell plc →Prices ease

   Talos Energy, Inc.TALO

   Shell Trading (US) Company represents 35% of Talos's oil, natural gas and NGL revenues, so a crude-supply increase would likely depress realized prices across Talos's hydrocarbon sales.

   81% confidence

   Shell plc →Prices ease

   Crescent Energy CompanyCRGY

   Shell Trading US Company is a 21.4% revenue customer, and more crude supply would tend to soften hydrocarbon prices, pressuring Crescent's realized sales values.

   78% confidence

   Shell plc →Prices ease

   W&T Offshore, Inc.