China wants to restrict exports of 40 strategic technologies
China is moving to restrict exports of strategic technologies, which could tighten availability of affected industrial and high-tech inputs.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Hardware & fasteners, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Smartphones and tablets →Shortage riskChina's gallium/germanium export controls can tighten compound-semiconductor supply, and RF front-end modules are a highly dependent smartphone input.
69% confidenceSmartphones and tablets →Shortage riskChina's graphite export curbs can constrain anode feedstock for lithium-ion batteries, tightening smartphone battery-cell supply.
66% confidenceHop 2
RF Front-End Modules (5G/LTE) →Shortage riskSmartphones and tablets are a critical downstream user of RF front-end modules, so export-control-driven tightening of module supply should quickly constrain handset availability.
93% confidenceLithium-Ion Battery Cells →Shortage riskChina accounts for 85% of lithium-ion battery cell supply, so export controls from China would sharply constrain this source.
92% confidenceLithium-Ion Battery Cells →Shortage riskHop 3
China →Shortage riskChina accounts for 98% of gallium supply, so Chinese export restrictions are highly likely to tighten gallium availability outside China.
96% confidenceChina →Shortage riskChina supplies 95% of terbium metal, so export controls from China would very likely reduce terbium availability and lengthen replacement lead times.
95% confidenceHop 4
Terbium (Tb) Metal →Shortage riskTerbium is a critical, high-dependency input to rare earth magnets, so tighter terbium availability should directly constrain magnet supply.
96% confidenceGallium →Shortage riskChina’s export restrictions can tighten gallium availability, and this critical input feeds semiconductor and chip production with moderate dependency strength.
78% confidenceTerbium (Tb) Metal →Stands to benefitAs a small alternative terbium supplier in a market with very low substitutability and long replacement lead times, Lynas can gain pricing power and substitution demand when Chinese supply tightens.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Smartphones and tablets · Rare earth magnets · Semiconductors and chips
Companies you may own
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.
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