El Mediterráneo desplaza a Rusia en el mapa del gas europeo
The headline indicates a shift in European gas supply toward Mediterranean sources and away from Russia.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Equinor ASA →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Europe's pivot toward Mediterranean gas should modestly improve availability of natural gas for this input, and the 8% dependency with a 12-month replacement lag makes the effect materially non-trivial.
60% confidenceEquinor ASA →supply upThe same broader gas resupply should also ease roasting-fuel procurement, but the exposure is smaller at 3% and the input is somewhat easier to substitute, so the effect is weaker.
47% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskThe headline says European gas is shifting away from Russia, so Russia's share of this natural-gas supply pool contracts materially (17% share on this edge).
90% confidenceNatural Gas (Roasting Fuel) →Shortage riskThe headline explicitly says Europe is moving away from Russian gas, and Russia has a large listed supply share of this input, so its contribution becomes materially scarcer.
88% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskHop 3
Algeria →supply upNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
As Europe substitutes Mediterranean gas for Russian supply, Algeria's pipeline-grade gas is a likely beneficiary, increasing availability of this Algerian-supplied input.
80% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
Russia is the source country for 53.8% of UAN solution supply, so a Russia-centered gas-market contraction can plausibly tighten this input's availability.
41% confidence