Ukraine imposes sanctions against five branches of Russian aluminum giant Rusal
Sanctions on Rusal's plants could constrain aluminum output and related metal supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from United Company RUSAL, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Chalco (Aluminum Corporation of China) →Prices riseAlumina (Aluminum Oxide, Al₂O₃)
Rusal sanctions can tighten alumina supply because Rusal owns major alumina capacity, so Chalco faces higher replacement cost on this moderately substitutable input.
77% confidenceUnited Company RUSAL →Prices easeAlumina (Aluminum Oxide, Al₂O₃)
Sanctions that constrain Rusal’s smelting output should reduce its alumina purchases; with only moderate dependence and available substitutes, the clearest propagation is modest downward pressure on alumina demand/prices.
61% confidenceAlcoa Corporation →Prices riseHop 2
Gallium Metal (High-Purity, 6N+) →DelaysQorvo Inc.QRVO
Qorvo is a sole-qualified-user of this gallium input with only 5% substitutability and a 36-month replacement lead time, so a gallium squeeze is likely to delay production.
80% confidenceGallium Metal (High-Purity, 6N+) →Shortage riskSpecialty chips have a critical 0.85 dependency on high-purity gallium, so a supply constraint should translate into chip shortages.
76% confidenceGallium Metal (High-Purity, 6N+) →Prices riseHop 3
China →Shortage riskChina accounts for 98% of global gallium supply, so any China-centered production disruption would transmit strongly into gallium scarcity.
75% confidenceQorvo Inc. →Shortage riskApple Inc.AAPL
Qorvo discloses Apple as its largest end customer at about 50% of revenue, so a Qorvo output constraint from upstream gallium shortage can materially reduce supply to Apple.
69% confidenceQorvo Inc. →Shortage riskHop 4
Samsung Electronics →Shortage riskAmbarella, Inc.AMBA
Ambarella says the substantial majority of its SoCs are supplied by Samsung, so a Samsung production constraint would likely create a material chip shortage for Ambarella.
83% confidenceGallium →Shortage riskGallium is marked as a critical input to semiconductors and chips, so a gallium supply squeeze would constrain chip output.
71% confidenceSamsung Electronics →Delays
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Specialty chips · Lighting & lamps · Semiconductors and chips
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