Los Angeles ends oil production after more than 10 years of struggle
Oil production in the Los Angeles area is ending, removing local crude output from supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is the essential input for gasoline and diesel, so ending local crude output directly tightens supply of these fuels.
93% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is a direct crude-derived product, so a loss of crude feedstock reduces its available supply.
90% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upIf lost Los Angeles crude output is replaced partly by Canadian imports, that higher feedstock availability can support jet fuel supply through this direct input edge.
Hop 2
Jet fuel →Shortage riskCrude oil sourcing
Ending Los Angeles crude output directly tightens the crude feedstock pool needed for jet fuel, making crude oil sourcing materially scarcer.
93% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeLower gasoline and diesel production reduces refinery hydrogen consumption, putting downward pressure on hydrogen prices.
81% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysRefining and hydrotreatment
With less crude available to source, refining and hydrotreatment throughput slows or waits on replacement barrels, stretching lead times.
80% confidenceHop 3
Hydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage riskRefinery-grade hydrogen is a critical input here, so tighter hydrogen availability should constrain home heating oil output.
86% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage riskThis high-dependency edge means reduced hydrogen availability should constrain gasoline and diesel production.
84% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Prices easeChina's dominant 85% supply share makes its lanthanum-oxide producers the most exposed to a demand-driven price decline.
Hop 4
W.R. Grace & Co. →Prices riseFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) CatalystsGRA
W.R. Grace has a 38% market share in FCC catalysts, so a company-level disruption would materially tighten that market and push prices up, with replacement taking about 6 months.
69% confidenceChina Northern Rare Earth Group →Prices easeLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive)
Lower gasoline and diesel output reduces FCC additive demand, which can दब pressure on the lanthanum oxide business China Northern Rare Earth Group supplies; this edge is large and hard to substitute.
61% confidenceBASF Catalysts (Refining Division) →Prices ease
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Jet fuel
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.