Live Cattle (Fed Cattle for Slaughter) →Shortage risk
Beef and ground beef
Live cattle are the critical input to beef and ground beef, so a cattle shortage directly reduces beef output and available supply.
95% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Fresh produce staples
This node is a critical input to fresh produce staples, and the edge’s high dependency strength implies a large reduction in staple availability when Mexico fresh horticultural imports tighten.
86% confidence
Rice →Shortage risk
Land Preparation and Flooding
Colorado River water cuts directly reduce the flooded-field preparation rice relies on, so this production step is curtailed.
79% confidence
Rice →Shortage risk
Crop Growth and Pest Management
Rice growth is highly irrigation-dependent, so less water constrains crop growth and the associated management activity.
78% confidence
Live Cattle (Fed Cattle for Slaughter) →Prices rise
JBS USA Holdings
Live cattle are a core input for JBS, and its large share plus low substitutability and 24-month replacement lead time mean tighter cattle supply raises procurement costs materially.
77% confidence
Live Cattle (Fed Cattle for Slaughter) →Prices rise
Tyson FoodsTSN
Tyson depends on live cattle inputs, so a cattle shortfall lifts feedstock costs and can constrain slaughter volumes, with limited ability to replace supply quickly.
76% confidence
Live Cattle (Fed Cattle for Slaughter) →Prices rise
Cargill, Incorporated
Cargill's beef-packing exposure to live cattle means reduced cattle availability increases input costs and operating pressure, especially given the long replacement lead time.
75% confidence
Live Cattle (Fed Cattle for Slaughter) →Prices rise
National Beef Packing Company
National Beef relies on live cattle as feedstock, and lower cattle supply raises acquisition costs and can leave processing capacity underutilized.
73% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Calavo Growers, Inc.CVGW
Calavo has a meaningful direct input dependency on this import stream, and a multi-month replacement lead time makes the supply hit materially disruptive.
72% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Mission Produce, Inc.AVO
Mission Produce depends on this input with moderate share and limited substitutability, so a water-driven import contraction should reduce available supply.
70% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Driscoll's, Inc.
Driscoll's has a meaningful direct input dependency and a long replacement lead time, so constrained imports should reduce near-term availability.
69% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Sysco CorporationSYY
Sysco’s direct dependence is larger than most listed firms, and the input is not easily or instantly replaceable, so availability tightens.
68% confidence
Rice →Shortage risk
Drain and Harvest
Lower water availability and weaker crop development reduce the volume and timing of harvest operations.
66% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.FDP
Fresh Del Monte has a direct but smaller exposure, so the shock likely constrains supply but less severely than the highest-share users.
66% confidence
Rice →Prices ease
Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
If rice acreage and yield fall, growers buy less urea, weakening demand for this input and likely its price.
65% confidence
Mexico fresh horticultural imports →Shortage risk
West Pak Avocado / Nogales produce brokers
West Pak’s exposure is smaller by share but still direct, and the limited substitutability means the supply cut should still be felt.
63% confidence
