Hurricane Isaias: Category 3 Threat to Gulf & Supply Chain
A major hurricane threatens Gulf-region ports, refineries, and shipping operations, risking near-term disruption to physical supply flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Marathon Petroleum Corporation, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline depends on this transport capacity as a sole-qualified supplier with a 45% share and a 36-month replacement lead time, so a hurricane-driven outage would directly constrain it.
94% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskJet fuel has a critical 0.9 dependency on this capacity, so disrupted pipeline throughput should tighten jet-fuel availability.
91% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Gulf operators have already shut in output and the storm is disrupting ports and shipping, so Marathon's Gulf Coast crude feedstock is likely to arrive in tighter supply.
Hop 2
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical jet-fuel input with very high dependency strength, so a Gulf disruption can quickly tighten jet fuel availability.
97% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysRefining and hydrotreatment
Refinery outages or curtailed hydrotreatment on the Gulf Coast directly reduce jet fuel output in the short run.
93% confidenceUnited States →Shortage riskSlide Insurance Holdings, Inc.SLDE
With nearly all gross premiums written in Florida and an explicit warning about catastrophe events, a Gulf hurricane is a direct hit to claims and capital.
Hop 3
Gasoline and diesel →DelaysCrude Transportation — Pipeline & Marine
The storm directly threatens Gulf shipping and pipeline flows that move crude to refineries.
94% confidenceExxonMobil →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
The hurricane directly threatens Gulf-region ports, refineries, and shipping, so this Gulf Coast feedstock is exposed to near-term physical supply disruption.
92% confidenceGasoline and diesel →DelaysAtmospheric & Vacuum Distillation (CDU/VDU)
Refinery storm outages delay the primary distillation units that feed gasoline and diesel production.
90% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Home heating oil · Gasoline and diesel
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.