U.S. refiners face new crude squeeze as Canada cuts oil sands output
Lower Canadian oil sands output tightens crude feedstock availability for U.S. refiners.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskU.S. Midwest refineries
The cited report says Midwest refineries rely on Canada's oil for about 70% of their supply, so a Canadian output cut creates a highly concentrated feedstock shortage for them.
“refineries in the U.S. Midwest, which rely on the country’s oil for about 70 per cent of their supply.”
97% confidenceCited →Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis input has a very strong dependency on jet fuel (0.95), so tighter crude feedstock availability should directly reduce jet fuel output.
96% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHop 2
Phillips 66 →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Canadian oil-sands cuts tighten Phillips 66’s crude feedstock supply on this explicit input edge; the recorded 3% share and 3-month replacement lead time imply a real but limited shortage.
93% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysCrude oil sourcing
Lower Canadian crude availability slows and complicates crude sourcing for jet-fuel production, so this step is delayed.
86% confidenceHome heating oil →DelaysAtmospheric Distillation (Crude Fractionation)
A crude feedstock shortfall cuts charge rates, so the fractionation step runs slower or idles.
86% confidenceHop 3
Lanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Shortage riskLanthanum oxide is a critical FCC additive input with high dependency strength, so any squeeze on it directly constrains gasoline and diesel production.
90% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage riskRefinery-grade hydrogen is a critical input with very high dependency strength, so a squeeze at this node constrains home heating oil output.
80% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Shortage riskHop 4
Chevron →Prices riseGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico explicitly buys airport fuel from Chevron at prices based on Platts, so Chevron's crude feedstock squeeze should pass through as higher fuel costs for Aeromexico.
84% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Cement and concrete
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