Oil prices rise above $95 after US and Iran strikes
The headline indicates a geopolitical shock affecting crude oil supply expectations through attacks involving the US and Iran.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseJet fuel is a critical downstream product of this feedstock, so a crude-oil price spike passes through quickly into higher jet-fuel prices.
93% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Prices riseCrude imports are a key input to jet fuel, so a spike in oil prices raises jet fuel input costs and pushes jet fuel prices higher.
86% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil depends on this Gulf Coast feedstock, and with only moderate substitutability a higher crude price raises its input costs.
80% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseValero's exposure to this feedstock means the oil-price spike lifts its crude input costs and pressures margins.
79% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseMarathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
Marathon Petroleum uses this feedstock, so the higher crude benchmark transmits into more expensive inputs for its refining operations.
78% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices risePhillips 66PSX
Phillips 66 consumes this feedstock, so the crude-price jump feeds through to higher operating input costs.
76% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseMotiva's dependence on this feedstock and six-month replacement horizon make it vulnerable to higher input costs from the oil-price shock.
74% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Stands to benefitCanada supplies 60.9% of these imports, so higher crude prices can improve revenues for the dominant source country.
67% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Jet fuel depends heavily on this critical feedstock, so a crude-price spike passes through directly as higher input cost.
93% confidenceExxonMobil →Prices riseExxonMobil depends on crude oil feedstock, so a geopolitical crude-price spike should raise the cost of that input.
92% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Marathon depends on this crude feedstock, so a crude-price shock directly raises its cost; the edge is moderately durable but not highly substitutable.
Hop 3
Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →Prices riseBitumen/asphalt binder is a critical 0.95-strength input to asphalt and paving materials, so higher crude-linked bitumen costs should pass through quickly as higher downstream prices.
90% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Prices riseAeromexico says only one dedicated turbine pipeline supplies jet fuel directly to MEX airport from Pemex's Tula refinery, so the crude-price spike feeds through strongly to its main-hub jet-fuel cost.
84% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Prices riseHop 4
Chevron →Prices riseGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico says it buys fuel from local suppliers such as Chevron at prices based on Platt's Oilgram, so higher oil prices directly raise its fuel costs.
95% confidenceBritish Petroleum →Prices riseCalumet, Inc.CLMT
BP supplies about 39.3% of Calumet's crude oil supply, so a crude-price spike directly raises Calumet's feedstock cost.
93% confidencePhillips 66 Company →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Asphalt and paving materials
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