Dangote’s next move could create the world’s largest refinery

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Lubricants and motor oil, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Base oils (Group II/III) →supply up

   Lubricants and motor oil

   Group II/III base oils are a critical input to lubricants and motor oil with dependency_strength 0.9, so added base-oil availability would materially ease downstream lubricant supply.

   74% confidence

   Lubricants and motor oil →supply up

   Base oils (Group II/III)

   Base oils are a critical high-dependency input to lubricants and motor oil, so added refinery/base-oil capacity would plausibly make this lubricant feedstock more available.

   70% confidence

   Base oils (Group II/III) →Prices ease

   ExxonMobilXOM

2. Hop 2

   ExxonMobil →Prices rise

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   A large refinery-capacity expansion would raise demand for crude oil feedstock, and ExxonMobil’s supplied-share edge is modest at 8% with partial substitutability, so the price-tightening transmission is real but limited.

   62% confidence

   Lubricant additive packages →Stands to benefit

   Lubrizol (Berkshire Hathaway)BRK.B

   If expanded fuel/lubricant production raises demand for lubricant additive packages, Lubrizol benefits as a major supplier with a cited 30% market share and low substitutability on the supplied edge.

   48% confidence

   Lubricant additive packages →Stands to benefit