Suez Canal Authority witnesses the first passage of tankers from the 'Bankok' fleet through the northern convoy

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Frontline plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Panamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight →Prices rise

   Potash and phosphate fertilizers

   Bulk-vessel freight is a material input to fertilizer shipments, so a Suez-linked freight disruption raises delivered costs.

   87% confidence

   Panamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight →Prices rise

   Steel and iron products

   Steel and iron cargoes depend on bulk vessel freight, so route disruption passes through as higher transport cost.

   83% confidence

   Hapag-Lloyd AG →supply up

   Suez Canal routing

   Hapag-Lloyd is moving another Gemini Cooperation service from the Cape of Good Hope to the Suez Canal, indicating more trans-Suez routing capacity and availability.

2. Hop 2

   Potash and phosphate fertilizers →Delays

   Bulk Export Logistics

   A Suez/convoy closure directly slows the maritime outbound logistics used to move fertilizer cargoes, stretching transit times and port handoffs.

   84% confidence

   Bread, grains, and flour →Delays

   Global Grain Trading & Shipping

   A Suez route closure directly slows and complicates grain trading and maritime shipping, which is a core logistics step for this commodity cluster.

   69% confidence

   World Kinect Corporation (World Fuel Services) →Shortage risk

   Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel

   A Suez-related tanker disruption can tighten marine diesel and bunker fuel availability, and this supplier edge has a 12% share with only moderate substitutability, so the input likely faces a moderate shortage.

3. Hop 3

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices rise

   Bread, grains, and flour

   Black Sea wheat is a critical input to bread, grains, and flour, so a route disruption raises landed costs for that staple stream.

   88% confidence

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices rise

   Bunge LimitedBG

   Bunge sources a material share of this flow, so higher freight and rerouting costs lift its procurement costs.

   78% confidence

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports) →Prices rise

   Ardent Mills

4. Hop 4

   Bunge Limited →Delays

   Vegetable Oil Blend (Palm Olein, Soy, Coconut, Sunflower)

   Bunge discloses a 15% supply dependence on this oil blend, and a Suez tanker-route disruption would most plausibly stretch maritime delivery times for oil shipments.

   48% confidence

   COFCO International Ltd. →Delays

   Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports)

   COFCO sources a material 12% share of this input, and a restriction on a major shipping lane can lengthen ocean-transit times for sea-borne grain shipments.

   38% confidence