Iran warns of halt to regional oil exports and retaliation if the US attacks infrastructure

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Saudi Aramco →Delays

   East-West Pipeline

   The cited report says Saudi Aramco's East-West Pipeline was previously hit, damaging a pumping station and slowing operations for several days, so renewed infrastructure threats plausibly delay this export route.

   “Saudi Aramco's East-West Pipeline was hit previously during the initial round of hostilities in April, damaging a pumping station and slowing down the line's operations for several days.”

   79% confidenceCited →

   Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   Canadian crude oil imports are a strong input to jet fuel production, so a regional oil-export disruption can tighten feedstock availability and reduce jet fuel supply.

   62% confidence

   Enterprise Products Partners →Prices rise

2. Hop 2

   Jet fuel →Prices rise

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   A regional oil export disruption tightens crude feedstock supply for Gulf Coast refiners, raising the cost of the jet-fraction crude used to make jet fuel.

   87% confidence

   LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Prices rise

   Propane (home use)

   A regional LPG supply disruption would tighten home-use propane availability and lift prices because propane is a direct LPG derivative/use.

   86% confidence

   Jet fuel →Delays

   Crude oil sourcing

   If regional crude flows are curtailed, sourcing the crude needed for jet fuel takes longer and becomes harder to secure.

3. Hop 3

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   This feedstock is a critical jet-fuel input (dependency_strength 0.95), so a Gulf Coast supply shock should directly tighten jet-fuel availability.

   96% confidence

   Propane (home use) →Shortage risk

   Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream)

   Propane home use is almost entirely dependent on mixed NGL feedstock, so a regional oil/export disruption would most plausibly show up as an upstream NGL shortage.

   84% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   ExxonMobil

4. Hop 4

   Helium-rich natural gas feedstock →Shortage risk

   Medical helium

   Medical helium is almost entirely dependent on this feedstock, so a regional supply disruption should translate into an immediate shortage.

   97% confidence

   Helium-rich natural gas feedstock →Shortage risk

   ExxonMobilXOM

   ExxonMobil's 20% share of this feedstock and long 60-month replacement horizon make its helium supply vulnerable to a sustained shortage.

   76% confidence

   Helium-rich natural gas feedstock →Shortage risk

   Linde plc