War in Ukraine: Russia admits fuel is running short because of Ukrainian attacks
Ukraine-linked attacks are reducing fuel availability in Russia.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gasoline and diesel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical, fully dependent input to gasoline and diesel, so a production halt or feedstock shortfall tightens their availability.
90% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil also depends critically on crude oil feedstock, so disruptions that reduce refining throughput or feedstock availability reduce supply.
87% confidenceDiesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power) →Shortage riskRussia supplies 10.8% of this fuel input, and the reported refinery attacks are already creating fuel shortages there, so its supply contribution is constrained.
Hop 2
Russia →Shortage riskPGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr)
Russia supplies 100% of this input, and a Russia-wide diesel/heavy fuel oil shortfall can directly curtail remote Arctic mining and backup power, reducing ore availability.
90% confidencePalladium and platinum group metals →DelaysMarket Delivery
With primary PGM output squeezed by fuel shortages, the final delivery stage moves less material and schedules slip.
86% confidencePalladium and platinum group metals →Stands to benefitSecondary Recovery — Spent Autocatalyst Recycling
When primary PGM supply tightens, recyclers lean more on spent autocatalysts, so the secondary recovery route gains throughput.
Hop 3
PGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr) →Shortage riskMMC Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel)GMKN
This ore is a 100% share, sole-qualified input to Nornickel, so a fuel-driven mining disruption directly tightens its feedstock supply.
92% confidencePGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr) →Shortage riskPalladium and platinum group metals
The ore is a critical input to palladium and platinum group metals, so reduced ore output curtails metal supply.
89% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Palladium and platinum group metals
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.