Ukraine claims its attacks have taken out more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity
The headline describes a major disruption to Russian oil refining capacity, which could materially reduce fuel and product supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Rosneft, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical input to gasoline and diesel, so refinery damage that cuts fuel output directly makes these products scarcer.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical input to home heating oil, so refinery damage that reduces processing output directly constrains its supply.
97% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Shortage riskAtmospheric & Vacuum Distillation (CDU/VDU)
These primary refining units are directly part of the damaged processing chain, so their operating capacity is constrained.
Hop 2
Home heating oil →Shortage riskTerminal Storage & Distribution Network
If refinery damage cuts home heating oil output, storage and distribution systems have less product to move, so delivered volumes tighten.
73% confidenceHome heating oil →Shortage riskLast-Mile Delivery to Consumers
Reduced upstream home heating oil availability means fewer deliveries can reach households and businesses.
70% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage riskRefinery-grade hydrogen is a critical refinery input, so ongoing refinery damage that curtails processing can constrain gasoline and diesel output.
66% confidenceHop 3
Spent Autocatalysts (Secondary PGM Feedstock) →Shortage riskPalladium and platinum group metals
Spent autocatalysts are a critical 70%-weighted secondary feedstock for palladium and platinum group metals, so scarcity here directly constrains PGM supply.
89% confidencePGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr) →Shortage riskMMC Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel)GMKN
This ore is the company's sole-qualified supply source, so any upstream ore disruption becomes a direct input shortage and can stall output.
85% confidencePGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr) →Shortage riskHop 4
MMC Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) →Shortage riskPGM Sulfide Ore — Russian Arctic (Norilsk/Taimyr)
Nornickel is the sole qualified supplier of this ore, so sustained fuel-constrained mining/smelting disruption can materially cut its availability.
85% confidenceMMC Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) →Shortage riskNickel Sulfate (Battery Grade)
A production hit at Nornickel should trim this battery-grade nickel sulfate supply line, though its market share is only about 10%.
63% confidenceMMC Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) →Shortage risk