Oil supply improves as Middle East crude exports recover, but high fuel costs may persist: Jefferies
Recovered Middle East crude exports are easing global oil supply constraints.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Enterprise Products Partners, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Saudi Aramco →supply upSaudi Aramco's resumed/normalized crude loading increases crude availability to downstream buyers; the edge's 6% market share and 3-month replacement time support a modest, real supply increase.
87% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upRecovered Middle East crude flows should make crude import inputs more available, and jet fuel depends materially on those inputs.
67% confidenceHop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is a critical, full-strength input to gasoline and diesel, so resupplied crude shipments directly lift their availability.
98% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upHome heating oil is also a critical, full-strength crude-dependent output, so normalization of crude supply raises its availability.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Stands to benefitWith crude feedstock as an input and only moderate substitutability plus a six-month replacement lead time, Irving Oil benefits from restored crude flows.
Hop 3
Irving Oil →supply upAs Middle East crude export flows normalize, Irving Oil's crude feedstock becomes more available; the effect is meaningful because the input has low substitutability and a multi-month replacement lead time.
90% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upMore Gulf Coast jet-fraction feedstock directly increases jet fuel availability because this input is critical and highly dependent.
89% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Stands to benefitHop 4
ExxonMobil →supply upRecovered Middle East crude exports should loosen global crude feedstock availability for ExxonMobil, but the exposure is only moderate because this input is not sole-sourced and is partially substitutable.
71% confidenceValero Energy →supply upGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Recovered Middle East exports should loosen global crude supply and improve availability of Valero's crude feedstock, though the dependency is only a 7.5% input share with moderate substitutability.
64% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →supply up