Solar overtakes coal as biggest power source in China
A shift in China’s power mix toward solar implies materially greater solar generation supply and reduced coal-fired output.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Residential Electricity →Prices riseChina's PV capacity overtaking coal signals continued solar buildout, which raises demand for solar-module feedstock polysilicon and can lift its price.
86% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon →Stands to benefitChina supplies 93.5% of this input, so a domestic move toward solar disproportionately supports the country's upstream polysilicon base.
76% confidenceResidential Electricity →Prices riseGrid-Scale Battery Storage (LFP/Li-ion)
A larger solar share increases the need for storage to smooth intermittency, boosting demand and pricing for grid-scale batteries.
Hop 2
Electricity (electrolytic refining) →supply upChina supplies 57% of this electricity input, and a solar-heavy shift in China directly increases the availability of electricity for electrolytic refining from that source.
89% confidenceTongwei Co., Ltd. →Prices riseChina's solar buildout should lift demand for solar-grade polysilicon, and Tongwei's 26% share plus 24-month replacement lead time make that market meaningfully tighter.
77% confidenceXinte Energy →Prices riseHop 3
Solar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Stands to benefitChina supplies 91% of 9N polysilicon, so a Chinese solar boom should most strongly lift domestic polysilicon production and pricing.
84% confidenceSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity) →Stands to benefitTongwei Co., Ltd.600438.SS
Tongwei has a 26% supply share and low substitutability, so stronger solar demand should improve its sales and pricing power.
78% confidenceContemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited →Stands to benefitHop 4
Grid-Scale Battery Storage (LFP Lithium Iron Phosphate) →Stands to benefitChina supplies 73% of this input, so a solar-driven rise in grid-scale LFP battery demand would concentrate the upside in Chinese manufacturing.
67% confidenceGrid-Scale Battery Storage (LFP Lithium Iron Phosphate) →Stands to benefitContemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited300750.SZ
As the largest supplier here with a 36% market share, CATL should benefit if more solar generation lifts demand for grid-scale LFP storage.
63% confidenceTongwei Co., Ltd. →Prices rise