The U.S. just took a big step to break China's magnet dominance
A U.S. action targeting China's magnet industry could restrict supply of rare-earth magnets and related components.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from NdFeB Rare Earth Permanent Magnets, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
NdFeB Rare Earth Permanent Magnets →Shortage riskChina supplies 92% of this input, so a sanction aimed at China's magnet industry should directly compress the dominant source of NdFeB magnets.
95% confidenceNdFeB Rare Earth Permanent Magnets →Shortage riskZhongke Sanhuan000970.SZ
As a 28% supplier with low substitutability and a 24-month replacement lead time, Zhongke Sanhuan's magnet output is likely to be constrained.
90% confidenceNdFeB Rare Earth Permanent Magnets →Shortage riskNdFeB magnets are a critical 0.75-weighted input here, so a supply squeeze should reduce availability and raise lead times.
Hop 2
Zhongke Sanhuan →Shortage riskNeodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) Permanent Magnets
A restriction on Zhongke Sanhuan would materially reduce supply of this NdFeB magnet line, and the edge's 20% share plus a 48-month replacement lead time make the shortage durable.
82% confidenceChina →Shortage riskChina supplies 95% of terbium metal, so a sanction that constrains China's rare-earth magnet ecosystem is likely to tighten terbium availability.
81% confidenceZhongke Sanhuan →Shortage riskHop 3
NdFeB Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators →Shortage riskChina supplies 85% of this input, so sanctions on its magnet industry hit the dominant source of supply directly.
95% confidenceTerbium (Tb) Metal →Shortage riskTerbium metal is a critical input to rare earth magnets, so a supply shock here directly tightens magnet output.
92% confidenceNdFeB Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators →Shortage riskZhongke Sanhuan000970.SZ
Hop 4
Rare earth magnets →Prices easeTb metal is a critical rare-earth magnet input, so reduced magnet output should weaken Tb demand and ease prices.
77% confidenceRare earth magnets →Prices easeNdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder
This alloy/powder stage sits very close to finished magnet production, so a magnet supply shock should quickly reduce demand for it.
76% confidenceYantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material →Shortage risk