Who are the Iran-backed militias behind Iraq's oil facility attacks?
Attacks on Iraqi oil facilities can disrupt crude production, storage, and export flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical, direct input to gasoline and diesel, so a facility attack that constrains crude supply should quickly reduce refined-product availability.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is also a critical downstream product of crude feedstock, so disruptions in crude production and export flows tighten its supply.
96% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskIraq accounts for 3.3% of Canadian crude oil imports, so attacks on Iraqi oil facilities mainly threaten a small slice of this import stream.
Hop 2
Home heating oil →Shortage riskHome heating oil is fully dependent on crude oil feedstock, so attacks that disrupt Iraqi crude production and export flows make this critical input scarce and transmit directly into heating-oil shortage risk.
95% confidenceIraq →Shortage riskBecause the shock is to Iraqi oil facilities, the most direct consequence is a shortage in Iraq-supplied crude oil feedstock, with the graph assigning a 4% share.
86% confidenceIraq →Shortage riskHop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical upstream input to jet fuel, so a Gulf Coast crude feedstock disruption can directly reduce jet fuel availability.
95% confidenceDiesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power) →Shortage riskIraq supplies 4.5% of this diesel/heavy fuel oil input, so attacks on Iraqi oil facilities directly tighten that source’s availability.
83% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
Hop 4
ExxonMobil →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Iraqi oil-facility attacks can curtail crude flows, and ExxonMobil's Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) is a direct input with only moderate substitutability and a 3-month replacement lead time.
66% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Attacks on Iraqi oil facilities can tighten crude availability feeding Marathon, and this input has only a 7% market share with a 3-month replacement lead time, so the disruption is real but limited.
64% confidencePhillips 66 →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Jet fuel
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.