U.S. Strategic Oil Inventories are Dangerously Low
Low strategic oil inventories indicate reduced buffer supply for crude and refined products in a disruption.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gasoline and diesel, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseCrude oil is a critical feedstock for gasoline and diesel, so dangerously low buffer inventories raise finished-fuel prices quickly.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseHome heating oil is a critical crude-derived product, and a thin strategic buffer makes its price more sensitive to disruption.
96% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical, high-dependency input into jet fuel, so dangerously low strategic oil inventories would tighten its availability and constrain jet fuel supply.
Hop 2
Home heating oil →Shortage riskHome heating oil is critically dependent on crude oil feedstock, so dangerously low strategic oil inventories tighten the crude buffer that supports this input.
91% confidencePBF Energy →Shortage riskShell plcSHEL
Low strategic oil inventories can constrain PBF's feedstock and refinery throughput, tightening product supply to Shell, which PBF disclosed as a 13% revenue customer.
68% confidenceHop 3
Shell plc →Stands to benefitShell Trading (US) accounts for 35% of Talos's oil, natural gas and NGL revenues, and a low strategic-inventory shock should lift crude/product prices, benefiting Talos's realized pricing.
86% confidenceShell plc →Stands to benefitShell Trading US Company is 21.4% of Crescent's 2025 revenues, so tighter oil inventories and firmer prices should improve Crescent's sales economics.
83% confidenceShell plc →Stands to benefitHop 4
Diamondback Energy, Inc. →Prices riseLow strategic inventories tighten crude markets and lift the value of Diamondback’s barrels; as a purchaser accounting for 16% of Diamondback revenue, Medallion likely faces higher input costs.
68% confidenceCrescent Energy Company →Prices riseShell Trading US Company (Shell plc)SHEL
Shell Trading US Company is Crescent's largest disclosed purchaser at 21.4% of revenue, so a tight crude market should raise the price Shell pays for Crescent's barrels.
68% confidenceDiamondback Energy, Inc. →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Jet fuel
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.