Hurricane Isaias prompts shut-ins for 60 percent of Gulf oil production
The storm is forcing major shut-ins of Gulf oil output, reducing crude supply from the region.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Marathon Petroleum Corporation, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical upstream input to jet fuel, so Gulf Coast shutdowns should directly tighten jet fuel availability.
97% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskExxonMobilXOM
With a 9% supply share and only moderate substitutability, ExxonMobil's access to this feedstock should be materially constrained.
85% confidenceElectricity (Refinery Operations) →Shortage riskGulf Coast refinery shutdowns from the hurricane should reduce electricity-dependent refinery operations, tightening supply of home heating oil.
Hop 2
Jet fuel →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Hurricane shutdowns directly cut the key Gulf Coast jet-fraction feedstock, and Jet fuel depends critically on it.
97% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysRefining and hydrotreatment
The hurricane directly disrupts refinery operations, so the refining/hydrotreatment step is delayed.
95% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysColonial Pipeline transport capacity
This critical transport chokepoint can be slowed or interrupted by Gulf Coast storm shutdowns, delaying jet fuel movements.
Hop 3
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical, one-for-one input to gasoline and diesel, so a Gulf Coast feedstock disruption directly constrains output.
98% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline's capacity is a hard-to-substitute input to the operator itself, and the sole-qualified-supplier/36-month replacement profile makes the disruption highly binding.
95% confidenceHydrogen (refinery-grade) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Home heating oil · Gasoline and diesel
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.