German government on Trump's diesel deal: no oil from Russia

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Gasoline and diesel →supply up

   Global diesel supply

   The announced deal adds a large new tranche of Russian diesel into the American and global market, directly increasing diesel availability.

   “Trump said Putin had agreed to release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately "to the American and global marketplace" followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and another million after that.”

   93% confidenceCited →

   Diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power) →Stands to benefit

   Russia

   Russia supplies 10.8% of this diesel/heavy fuel oil node, and the cited deal puts hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Russian diesel back into the market, benefiting Russia as a supplier.

   88% confidence

   Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Stands to benefit

2. Hop 2

   Russia →Shortage risk

   Weatherford International plcWFRD

   Weatherford says Russia accounted for about 7% of revenue, so a Russia-side disruption can directly shrink that revenue stream.

   76% confidence

   Russia →Shortage risk

   SLB LIMITED/NVSLB

   SLB discloses Russia as about 4% of worldwide revenue and $0.7 billion of net assets, so a Russia shock can constrict revenue and strand assets there.

   70% confidence

   Russia →Shortage risk

   Core Laboratories Inc.

3. Hop 3

   Fish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed) →Shortage risk

   Seafood and fish

   Fish meal and fish oil are a critical aquaculture feed input, so a shortage there directly constrains seafood and fish production.

   90% confidence

   Industrial Ammonia (Refrigeration) →Shortage risk

   Seafood and fish

   Industrial ammonia refrigeration is a direct input to seafood and fish with high dependency strength (0.75), so tighter ammonia supply would make seafood handling and storage scarcer.

   73% confidence

   Aquaculture Vaccines (Salmon Lice and Bacterial) →Prices ease

   Zoetis Inc.

4. Hop 4

   Zoetis Inc. →Shortage risk

   Aquaculture Vaccines (Salmon Lice and Bacterial)ZTS

   Zoetis holds a 48% share of this market with low substitutability and a long replacement lead time, so a company-level disruption can materially tighten supply here.

   71% confidence

   Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. →Delays

   Shell plcSHEL

   Shell is a major 2025 customer at 18% of Helix consolidated revenue, so a Helix operating disruption can delay service delivery to Shell.

   49% confidence

   Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. →Delays

   Talos Energy Inc.