Russia took second place in the world for arms exports in 2025
Russian weapons exports increased/held strong, indicating a shift in arms supply flows to foreign buyers.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Ammunition, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Ammunition →Shortage riskNitrocellulose Smokeless Powder (Propellant)
If stronger Russian arms exports keep ammunition output elevated, this critical propellant input gets pulled tighter because ammunition depends heavily on it.
58% confidenceAmmunition →Shortage riskLead Styphnate (Primer Explosive Compound)
Higher ammunition production would strain this critical primer compound, which is a high-dependency input in ammunition manufacturing.
56% confidenceAmmunition →Shortage riskAntimony Metal (Bullet Core Hardener)
More ammunition output would raise demand for antimony used in bullet hardening, though this input is somewhat less central than propellant or primer chemicals.
46% confidenceHop 2
Antimony Metal (Bullet Core Hardener) →Stands to benefitChina's 48% antimony supply share means it is a major beneficiary if stronger Russian arms exports lift ammunition demand and, in turn, antimony demand.
70% confidenceAntimony Metal (Bullet Core Hardener) →Stands to benefitThailand's 47.4% antimony supply share makes its suppliers likely to benefit if ammunition-driven antimony demand rises with stronger Russian arms exports.
69% confidenceAntimony Metal (Bullet Core Hardener) →Stands to benefitHop 3
Hsikwangshan Twinkling Star Co., Ltd. →Prices riseAntimony Metal (Bullet Core Hardener)
Stronger Russian weapons exports can sustain ammunition demand, which would tighten demand for bullet-core antimony metal; this supplier’s 25% market share and low substitutability make price pressure plausible.
55% confidenceThailand →Prices riseAntimony Metal (Bullet Core Hardener)
Thailand supplies 47.4% of this input, and stronger Russian weapons exports are consistent with firmer ammunition demand, which would tend to lift antimony metal prices.
41% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
No consumer goods on this path.
Companies you may own
Hsikwangshan Twinkling Star Co., Ltd.
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.