Oil prices jump as Mexico's Gulf 63% crude shutdown continues
A major crude oil output stoppage in Mexico's Gulf is keeping a large share of oil production offline.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Chevron Corporation, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
ExxonMobil →Shortage riskSEACOR Marine Holdings, Inc.SMHI
ExxonMobil accounted for 17% of SEACOR Marine's 2025 consolidated operating revenues, and an offshore production shut-in typically cuts near-term marine support demand.
86% confidenceExxonMobil →Shortage riskExxonMobil accounted for about 19.7% of Noble's 2025 consolidated operating revenues, so a Gulf production halt can reduce offshore rig utilization and revenue.
84% confidenceConocoPhillips →Shortage riskHop 2
Natural gas wellhead production →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production is a direct, fully critical input to residential natural gas, so a Gulf production shut-in tightens household gas supply.
95% confidenceHop 3
Natural gas (home) →Stands to benefitUnderground natural gas storage (depleted fields & salt caverns)
A Gulf production shut-in tightens near-term gas supply, so storage withdrawals become more important and the storage system is more heavily utilized.
67% confidenceNatural gas (home) →Stands to benefitLNG peak-shaving and import facilities
With domestic output curtailed, LNG peak-shaving/import facilities act as substitute supply and gain value as balancing sources.
64% confidenceHop 4
LNG peak-shaving and import facilities →Shortage riskLNG peak-shaving and import facilities are a critical buffer for residential gas supply, so a Gulf production shut-in can tighten delivered natural gas availability.
82% confidenceLNG peak-shaving and import facilities →Shortage riskThe U.S. accounts for the largest listed share, so constrained LNG peak-shaving/import output would most directly reduce domestic supply availability.
76% confidenceUnderground natural gas storage (depleted fields & salt caverns) →Shortage riskHop 5
United Kingdom →Shortage riskpMDI Aluminum Canister (Coated)
With 85% of supply coming from the UK, UK energy tightness from the upstream shock can materially curtail output and make these canisters scarcer.
78% confidenceKinder Morgan, Inc. →Shortage riskCurtailing Gulf production directly tightens the pipeline-grade natural gas stream that Kinder Morgan’s midstream network handles and stores, reducing near-term availability of that commodity.
76% confidenceUnited Kingdom →Shortage risk