Trump will attack - Iran threatens to stop all oil exports
Iran threatens to halt all crude oil exports, which could sharply constrain global oil supply if carried out.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Frontline plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →Prices riseA crude-supply shock raises feedstock costs for jet fuel, and this edge has a strong input dependency (0.75).
69% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Stands to benefitWith Iranian barrels constrained, substitute demand can shift toward the dominant source in this stream, and Canada carries a 60.9% share.
56% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
An Iranian export halt would tighten crude availability and directly constrain this critical jet-fuel feedstock input.
82% confidenceHop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical 95%-dependent input to jet fuel, so a crude export shock tightens jet-fuel supply.
95% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil's roughly 9% share and limited substitutability make it vulnerable to higher Gulf Coast feedstock costs.
82% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseHop 4
Phillips 66 →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Iran’s threatened export halt tightens crude supply, raising the cost of Phillips 66’s Gulf Coast jet-fraction feedstock and making it harder to secure.
86% confidenceExxonMobil →Shortage riskIran's threatened crude export halt tightens global crude availability, and ExxonMobil's crude feedstock has only moderate substitutability with a multi-month replacement lag.
83% confidenceMotiva Enterprises LLC →Prices riseHop 5
Oxidized Asphalt / Bitumen →Shortage riskOxidized asphalt/bitumen is a critical roofing input with 0.95 dependency strength, so a supply shock should directly constrain roofing materials output.
96% confidenceOxidized Asphalt / Bitumen →Prices riseCalumet's 30% exposure to this input and 6-month replacement lead time imply materially higher input costs when bitumen tightens.
84% confidenceOxidized Asphalt / Bitumen →Prices riseGAF's 15% dependence on bitumen with only moderate substitutability means a shortage should push up its input costs.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Roofing materials
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.