Iran War Forces a Rewrite of Global Oil Trade Routes
Conflict is redirecting crude oil and tanker flows and could disrupt established shipping routes.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Frontline plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical upstream input to jet fuel, so disrupted Gulf Coast crude flows can directly tighten jet fuel availability.
93% confidenceMarine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Shortage riskSeafood and fish depends heavily on marine diesel and bunker fuel, so disruption-driven fuel scarcity or rerouting pressure would directly constrain fishing and cold-chain distribution.
88% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →DelaysExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil has the largest listed share on this input edge, so rerouted crude and tanker traffic should most noticeably delay its feedstock supply.
80% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →DelaysValero relies on this Gulf Coast feedstock, and longer, rerouted tanker flows would delay arrivals and disrupt refinery input timing.
79% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →DelaysMarathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
Marathon's feedstock dependence means the route disruption is likely to stretch delivery lead times for its crude inputs.
78% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →DelaysMotiva's supply link is less substitutable and has a longer replacement lead time, so route disruption should delay its feedstock deliveries.
76% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →DelaysPhillips 66PSX
Phillips 66 is exposed through this feedstock link, though its smaller share makes the timing disruption somewhat less severe than the larger Gulf Coast refiners.
73% confidenceFrontline plc →Stands to benefittanker owners
Reuters says oil trade is shifting to longer, costlier supply lines; that typically increases voyage demand and freight earnings for tanker owners like Frontline.
“The end result is a shift away from the concentrated energy corridors of recent decades to a more dispersed network of supply lines that cost more and take longer, but help reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks and boost energy security.”
58% confidenceCited →Hop 2
Jet fuel →DelaysCrude oil sourcing
The conflict's rerouting of crude cargoes directly slows and complicates crude oil sourcing for jet-fuel production.
86% confidenceJet fuel →DelaysRefining and hydrotreatment
Once crude sourcing is delayed, the refining and hydrotreatment step that turns it into jet fuel also slows and faces longer lead times.
76% confidenceMotiva Enterprises LLC →Prices easeGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
If Motiva's operations are constrained, it draws less of this feedstock, which can modestly soften prices for the input; the effect is limited by the 3.75% share and moderate substitutability.
61% confidenceHop 3
Colonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline Company depends on this transport capacity as a sole-qualified input, and the 36-month replacement lead time makes the capacity shock severe.
94% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskJet fuel is a critical dependent on Colonial Pipeline transport capacity, so a disruption in the route tightens delivered fuel availability.
90% confidenceColonial Pipeline transport capacity →Shortage riskHop 4
British Petroleum →Prices riseCalumet, Inc.CLMT
BP supplies about 39.3% of Calumet's crude oil, so disrupted tanker routes would most likely raise delivered feedstock costs from BP.
87% confidenceColonial Pipeline Company →Shortage riskColonial Pipeline transport capacity
Colonial Pipeline is the sole qualified supplier and holds about 45% market share for this transport capacity, so any disruption at the company directly tightens supply of the capacity it provides.
84% confidenceValero →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Seafood and fish
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.