New Zealand approves new oil and gas production as energy security concerns grow

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Shell plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Shell plc →Prices ease

   Talos Energy, Inc.TALO

   Shell Trading is 35% of Talos's oil, natural gas and NGL revenues, so added hydrocarbon supply should दब realized prices for this upstream producer.

   76% confidence

   Shell plc →Prices ease

   Crescent Energy CompanyCRGY

   Shell Trading US Company accounts for 21.4% of Crescent's revenues, making it vulnerable to lower hydrocarbon prices from new supply.

   73% confidence

   Shell plc →Prices ease

   W&T Offshore, Inc.WTI

2. Hop 2

   Natural gas wellhead production →supply up

   Natural gas (home)

   More wellhead gas production directly increases the supply available for home natural gas use, and this edge is marked critical with full dependency.

   95% confidence

   Natural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →supply up

   Electricity (residential)

   New natural-gas supply capacity eases a critical fuel input for residential electricity generation, increasing the availability of power.

   86% confidence

   Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →supply up

   Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers

3. Hop 3

   BP Products North America (BP p.l.c.) →supply up

   Calumet, Inc.CLMT

   BP supplies about 39.3% of Calumet's crude oil supply, so added hydrocarbon capacity can flow through to Calumet as more available feedstock.

   84% confidence

   ConocoPhillips →Prices ease

   Crescent Energy CompanyCRGY

   Crescent disclosed ConocoPhillips as a 13.5% revenue customer, so added hydrocarbon supply that pressures market prices should reduce Crescent’s realized revenue on sales into that relationship.

   73% confidence

   Natural gas (home) →Stands to benefit

   Interstate natural gas transmission pipelines

4. Hop 4

   Interstate natural gas transmission pipelines →supply up

   Natural gas (home)

   Interstate natural gas transmission pipelines are a critical input to home-gas delivery, so added pipeline-fed supply should make household gas more available.

   81% confidence

   Calumet, Inc. →Prices ease

   BP Oil Supply Co. (BP p.l.c.)BP

   With BP disclosed as supplying 39.3% of Calumet's crude oil, added global hydrocarbon capacity should soften crude prices and الضغط BP's realized selling prices.

   67% confidence

   Calumet, Inc. →Prices ease

   Macquarie Commodities Trading US, LLC (Macquarie Group)