Problems with coal purchases as the situation becomes more tense
Coal procurement difficulties suggest tighter supply or distribution conditions for coal buyers.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Metallurgical (coking) coal, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Metallurgical (coking) coal →Shortage riskMetallurgical coal is a critical steelmaking input, so procurement difficulties tighten steel and iron product supply.
92% confidenceCoal Tar Pitch (Aluminum Smelting Anode Binder) →Prices riseAluminum and aluminum products
Coal tar pitch is a key input for anode production, so tighter pitch supply would raise input costs for aluminum and aluminum products.
81% confidenceMetallurgical (coking) coal →Stands to benefitGlencoreGLEN.L
Glencore supplies 18% of metallurgical coal, and tighter coal availability should improve its pricing power and sales.
Hop 2
Steel and iron products →Prices easeIron ore (direct shipping ore & pellets)
If steel and iron products output is squeezed by coal procurement problems, demand for iron ore feedstock softens and prices ease.
68% confidenceAluminum and aluminum products →Shortage riskCoal Tar Pitch (Aluminum Smelting Anode Binder)
Coal tar pitch is a coal-derived anode binder and a listed input to aluminum production, so coal procurement difficulties can tighten its availability.
63% confidenceSteel and iron products →Prices easeHop 3
Refractory materials (magnesia-carbon bricks) →Shortage riskMagnesia-carbon bricks are a critical input to steel and iron products, so a shortage here directly constrains downstream steel output.
86% confidenceFerrous scrap steel →Shortage riskSteel and iron products depend critically on ferrous scrap steel, so a tightening of scrap availability would directly constrain that downstream good.
82% confidenceManganese ore →Shortage riskHop 4
Rio Tinto →Shortage riskIron ore (direct shipping ore & pellets)
Rio Tinto is a major supplier of this iron ore stream (22% market share), so a disruption at Rio Tinto would tighten available supply.
82% confidenceAustralia →Shortage riskAustralia supplies about 55% of global metallurgical coal, so a tightening or disruption tied to Australia can materially constrain coking coal availability for buyers.
72% confidenceVale S.A. →Shortage risk