Russia extends fuel export ban amid record refinery strikes
The extension of the fuel export ban further constrains gasoline, diesel, and other refined-product exports from Russia while refinery strikes may tighten domestic supply as well.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Rosneft, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gasoline and diesel →Prices easeRestrictions on gasoline and diesel sales can reduce refinery offtake and therefore weaken demand for crude feedstock.
58% confidenceRosneft →Shortage riskRosneft's fuel-product sales restrictions should trim some supply of fuel-grade petroleum coke, but the impact is capped by its small 3% share and moderate substitutability.
56% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices easeIf fuel product sales are constrained, hydrotreating activity can ease, reducing refinery hydrogen demand.
Hop 2
Petroleum Coke (Fuel Grade) →Shortage riskFuel-grade petroleum coke is a critical input for cement and concrete, so restrictions that tighten its availability should reduce downstream output.
82% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskGasoline and diesel are a critical, 1:1 downstream use of crude oil feedstock, so any constraint at this input quickly reduces their availability.
82% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil also depends critically on crude oil feedstock, so a tighter feedstock market propagates into lower heating oil supply.