Tankers wait a month as Venezuela hits an oil export ceiling
Venezuela's oil export ceiling is delaying tanker loadings and constraining crude flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskVenezuela accounts for 2.3% of Canadian crude oil imports, so lower Venezuelan exports should slightly constrain that import stream, but the small share limits the overall impact.
82% confidenceHop 2
Venezuela →Shortage riskVenezuela supplies 3.5% of crude oil feedstock, so a fall in its oil exports directly trims this input's availability.
95% confidenceVenezuela →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Venezuela accounts for 2.3% of this feedstock, so reduced Venezuelan exports slightly tighten supply into the Gulf Coast jet-fraction stream.
90% confidenceVenezuela →Shortage riskVenezuela supplies 2.3% of Canadian crude oil imports, so lower Venezuelan exports reduce that import flow.
Hop 3
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical input here, so a Venezuela-driven feedstock reduction directly cuts gasoline and diesel output.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil also depends critically on crude oil feedstock, so lower feedstock supply reduces available output.
97% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis input has 0.95 dependency strength and is marked critical, so a crude feedstock shortfall should directly tighten jet fuel supply.
Hop 4
ExxonMobil →Shortage riskVenezuela's export decline tightens ExxonMobil's crude feedstock availability, and this input has only moderate substitutability with a multi-month replacement lag.
84% confidenceExxonMobil →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
The specific Gulf Coast jet-fraction feedstock becomes scarcer as crude imports fall, and its 9% share with a three-month replacement lag limits rapid substitution.
82% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices ease