Lukoil and Bellesbumprom are free from sanctions
Sanctions relief on Lukoil and Bellesbumprom would ease constraints on Russian oil and Belarusian industrial production/trade.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Belaruskali (BPC), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Belaruskali (BPC) →supply upPotash Ore — Muriate of Potash (MOP / KCl)
Sanctions relief should let Belaruskali/BPC move more potash through trade channels, and this edge represents a material potash stream with 13% market share, low substitutability, and a long replacement lead time.
86% confidenceBelaruskali (BPC) →supply upPotash (Muriate of Potash / KCl)
Eased sanctions on Belaruskali should increase availability of this potash stream, which still has a meaningful 10% share and a multi-year replacement horizon.
85% confidenceBelaruskali (BPC) →supply upPotash (Muriate of Potash, MOP — KCl)
This potash variant should also become more available if Belaruskali's export and production constraints ease, with a still-material 9% share despite somewhat higher substitutability.
84% confidenceRosneft →supply upSanctions relief on Russian oil should modestly increase crude feedstock availability feeding Rosneft, but this input is only a small, substitutable share with a short replacement window.
43% confidenceHop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upHome heating oil is a critical output that depends entirely on crude oil feedstock, so easing feedstock constraints should increase its availability.
93% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upGasoline and diesel are critical outputs that depend entirely on crude oil feedstock, so easing feedstock constraints should increase their availability.
93% confidencePotash (Muriate of Potash, MOP — KCl) →Stands to benefitBelaruskali is a Belarusian potash producer, so relief from Belarus-related sanctions should improve its export/trading conditions; the edge carries a 9% potash supply share.
Hop 3
Belarus →supply upPotash Ore — Muriate of Potash (MOP / KCl)
Belarus supplies 13% of this input, so sanctions relief that loosens Belarusian production and trade constraints should raise its availability.
88% confidenceHome heating oil →supply upSanctions relief on Russian oil directly raises availability of the critical crude feedstock, which is the sole upstream input for home heating oil in this graph.
86% confidenceBelarus →supply upHop 4
Potassium Chloride (Pharmaceutical Grade, KCl) →supply upSanctions relief on Belarusian industrial production/trade should ease exports from a source that supplies 12.24% of this pharma-grade KCl, lifting Belarusian KCl availability.
79% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →supply upSulfur supply relief directly lifts sulfuric-acid feedstock availability, supporting higher output of this downstream chemical.
75% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →supply up
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Home heating oil · Gasoline and diesel · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Potash and phosphate fertilizers · Sulfuric acid · IV fluids
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.