Iran's oil stockpiles could run out by mid-October
Iran's crude oil availability is expected to tighten as stockpiles run down, potentially reducing supply from the country.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil is a critical feedstock, so tighter crude availability can quickly constrain refinery output of gasoline and diesel.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is also refined from crude, so a feedstock squeeze can reduce output and tighten supply.
96% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Stands to benefitAs the largest supply-share country on this input edge, the U.S. can gain from displaced demand and firmer crude prices when Iranian barrels disappear.
Hop 2
Home heating oil →Shortage riskHome heating oil depends directly and critically on crude oil feedstock, so tighter Iranian crude supply would constrain that input and reduce output.
93% confidenceCanada →Shortage riskCanada supplies 82.6% of bitumen/asphalt binder, a directly petroleum-based input, making it especially exposed to crude availability tightening.
60% confidenceCanada →Shortage riskCanada supplies 87.6% of LAB, and LAB is a petroleum-linked petrochemical, so a crude-feedstock squeeze in Canada would likely tighten output.
Hop 3
Linear Alkylbenzene (LAB) →Shortage riskCleaning and sanitation supplies
LAB is a critical, high-dependency input for cleaning and sanitation supplies, so a LAB availability squeeze would directly tighten downstream supply.
95% confidenceBitumen / Asphalt Binder →Shortage riskBitumen / asphalt binder is a critical, high-dependency input to asphalt and paving materials, so a tighter binder supply should quickly constrain output.
95% confidenceHDPE Resin (bottle packaging) →Shortage riskHop 4
Asphalt and paving materials →DelaysHot Mix Asphalt (HMA) Plant Production
Asphalt and paving materials depend critically on bitumen binder, so a crude-oil-linked tightening in binder supply would delay hot-mix asphalt plant production.
78% confidenceFiber optic cables and networking →Prices easeOptical Fiber Preform (Silica Glass Rod)
With fiber optic cable output constrained, demand for optical preforms used in drawing those fibers should soften, putting downward pressure on prices.
62% confidenceFiber optic cables and networking →Prices easeLower production of fiber optic cables should reduce purchases of silicon tetrachloride used in the manufacturing chain, easing near-term demand.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Cleaning and sanitation supplies · Asphalt and paving materials · Fiber optic cables and networking
Companies you may own
No named companies on this path.
Tap a company to see what it told the SEC could break it.
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.