ETM battles Greenland over rare earth expropriation

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Rare-earth elements (NdPr), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Rare-earth elements (NdPr) →Shortage risk

   Rare earth magnets

   NdPr is a critical input to rare earth magnets, so a disruption in NdPr supply would directly constrain magnet availability.

   96% confidence

   Rare-earth elements (NdPr) →Stands to benefit

   China

   With China already controlling roughly 70% of NdPr supply, a blocked Greenland project reinforces its dominant position and pricing power.

   80% confidence

   Rare-earth elements (NdPr) →Stands to benefit

   MP Materials Corp.MP

   As a sizeable non-sole NdPr supplier, MP Materials could gain from tighter future supply through stronger pricing and demand shift to existing producers.

2. Hop 2

   MP Materials Corp. →Shortage risk

   Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal

   A control dispute at MP Materials would directly constrain NdPr oxide/metal output, and this edge carries a 15% market share with very low substitutability and a 24-month replacement lead time.

   87% confidence

   MP Materials Corp. →Shortage risk

   Rare-earth elements (NdPr)

   The same disruption would also tighten MP's NdPr supply more generally, and the edge shows a meaningful 12% market share even though substitutability is higher.

   82% confidence

   Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Prices rise

   Rare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb)

3. Hop 3

   Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →Shortage risk

   Rare earth magnets

   NdPr oxide/metal is a critical input to rare earth magnets, so a supply disruption should quickly tighten magnet availability.

   93% confidence

   Rare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) →Prices rise

   Home appliances

   Rare earth oxides are a critical input for home appliances (dependency 0.85), so a supply disruption is likely to lift input costs and squeeze production.

   83% confidence

   Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →Stands to benefit

   China Northern Rare Earth Group

4. Hop 4

   Home appliances →Shortage risk

   NdFeB Rare Earth Magnets

   Home appliances depend critically on NdFeB magnets, and the rare-earth supply shock tightens the feedstock needed to make them.

   93% confidence

   China Northern Rare Earth Group →Shortage risk

   Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal

   China Northern Rare Earth Group’s NdPr oxide/metal feed is highly concentrated and hard to substitute, so a Greenland rare-earth supply disruption would likely tighten availability of this input for the company.

   84% confidence

   Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. →Shortage risk

   Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal