Gas reversal to the East is gaining pace: new magistral to China is ready at nearly 100%
A new near-complete gas pipeline toward China implies additional future natural gas export capacity.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →supply upChina
The source explicitly says Gazprom's Power of Siberia route will deliver gas to China at large contracted volumes, so China's future natural-gas supply rises.
“The 30-year agreement provides for Russian gas deliveries to China at 38 billion cubic meters per year.”
89% confidenceCited →Natural Gas (Pipeline-Grade) →supply upChina
The source explicitly says Russia wants to increase pipeline gas supplies to China by 50 bcm/year via Power of Siberia-2, so China's pipeline-gas availability rises.
“Russia wants to increase pipeline gas supplies to China by 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year via Power of Siberia-2”
83% confidenceCited →Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Hop 2
Natural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →Stands to benefitGazprom (ПАО Газпром)GAZP.MM
The near-complete China pipeline should expand Gazprom's export outlet for natural gas, improving its ability to monetize incremental volumes.
86% confidenceNatural gas wellhead production →Stands to benefitGazprom (ПАО Газпром)GAZP.MM
A near-complete China-bound gas pipeline should lift expected export demand, and Gazprom is a major supplier of natural gas wellhead production with an 11% share.
78% confidenceNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →Stands to benefitHop 3
Russia →Prices riseUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
Russia accounts for 53.8% of UAN solution supply, so a ramp-up in gas export capacity can tighten Russian gas/feedstock availability and lift UAN production costs.
44% confidenceHop 4
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage riskRussia accounts for 53.8% of this UAN supply base, so a Russian gas-export expansion can materially constrain Russian UAN availability.
83% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Prices riseAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
If Russian gas is diverted eastward, UAN production costs can rise and tighten the broader ammonia/nitrogen fertilizer market, pushing prices higher.
76% confidenceUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.