About 10% of NPPs are under repair, says Novak
Repairs taking roughly 10% of nuclear power plants offline could reduce electricity supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Electricite de France S.A. (EDF), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Residential Electricity →Shortage riskElectricity Generation
Repairs taking roughly 10% of nuclear plants offline directly constrain the Electricity Generation step, reducing the electricity flowing into Residential Electricity.
91% confidenceElectricite de France S.A. (EDF) →Shortage riskIndustrial electricity (high-voltage)
EDF's reduced nuclear output directly tightens supply of high-voltage industrial electricity, with the effect tempered by only a 5% market share but slowed by the 24-month replacement lead time.
89% confidenceElectricite de France S.A. (EDF) →Shortage riskElectricity (electrolytic refining)
EDF's curtailed generation also reduces electricity available for electrolytic refining, but the impact is smaller because the edge carries only a 2% share and replacement is easier over a 6-month lead time.
84% confidenceReseau de Transport d'Electricite (RTE) →Shortage riskAbout 10% of nuclear plants offline can tighten grid electricity availability, and RTE has a direct dependency on grid power with a 12% share and low substitutability.
62% confidenceHop 2
Industrial electricity (high-voltage) →Shortage riskMedical oxygen is a critical electricity-intensive input, so reduced high-voltage power supply can quickly constrain output.
92% confidenceElectricity (Grid Power) →Shortage riskElectricity is a critical, nearly non-substitutable production input for industrial gases, so a grid-power drop can cut output.
86% confidenceElectricity (Grid Power) →Shortage riskThe outage is in France, so the domestic electricity market itself is directly exposed to the reduction in nuclear generation.
Hop 3
China →Shortage riskWith 98% of gallium supply tied to China, reduced Chinese electricity can directly curtail gallium output and make the input scarce.
96% confidenceChina →Shortage riskWith 95% of terbium supply coming from China, a China power shortfall can sharply constrain output and tighten availability.
95% confidenceChina →Shortage riskArtificial Plant Plastics (PE/PP/PVC + Wire)
With 94.8% of supply tied to China, a China power shortfall can sharply reduce availability of this input and strain downstream buyers.
Hop 4
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. →Shortage riskIf Chinese electricity shortages curb e.l.f. output, Target could receive fewer e.l.f. shipments; Target is the largest disclosed customer at 18% of net sales.
65% confidencee.l.f. Beauty, Inc. →Shortage riskWalmart Inc.WMT
A production shortfall at e.l.f. would reduce shipments into Walmart's channels, creating a limited shortage of e.l.f. products; Walmart is a major disclosed customer at 13% of net sales.
63% confidencee.l.f. Beauty, Inc. →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Medical oxygen · Industrial gases · Copper and electrical wiring
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