BP shares rise as oil giant reports $8.5bn quarterly profit amid Iran war disruption
War-related disruption is implied to be affecting oil flows, with implications for crude and related energy supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from BP plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Irving Oil →Prices riseWar-related oil-flow disruption would lift crude feedstock prices, and Irving Oil's moderate substitutability plus roughly 6-month replacement window mean the cost shock should transmit materially.
86% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Prices riseCrude imports are a major feedstock for jet fuel, so a war-driven crude flow disruption should transmit quickly into higher jet fuel costs.
80% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseCalumet, Inc.CLMT
BP supplies about 39.3% of Calumet's crude oil, so the war-driven rise in oil prices would likely lift Calumet's feedstock costs.
Hop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskCrude oil feedstock is a critical, one-to-one input to gasoline and diesel, so a war-driven crude disruption directly constrains their supply.
96% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Shortage riskHome heating oil is also a critical downstream product of crude oil feedstock, so crude-flow disruption should reduce available supply.
95% confidenceJet fuel →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Jet fuel is critically dependent on this crude feedstock, so a war-driven disruption to oil flows can tighten its availability and constrain production.
Hop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) is a critical input to jet fuel, so a war-related feedstock disruption directly constrains jet fuel availability.
96% confidenceBP Oil Supply Co. (BP p.l.c.) →Shortage riskCalumet, Inc.CLMT
BP supplied about 39.3% of Calumet's crude feedstock, so an oil-flow disruption at BP would materially tighten Calumet's crude availability.
89% confidenceShell Trading (US) Company (Shell plc) →Stands to benefitHop 4
Lubricant Base Oils (Group I/II/III) for Engine Oil & Industrial Lubricants →Shortage riskGroup I/II/III lubricant base oils are a critical upstream input for motor oil and industrial lubricants, so a disruption here should tighten downstream availability.
91% confidenceDiamondback Energy, Inc. →Prices riseMedallion accounts for a double-digit share of Diamondback's revenue, so a war-driven crude price increase would raise Medallion's procurement cost for that purchased oil.
81% confidenceDiamondback Energy, Inc. →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Motor oil & lubricants
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.