Rakiety balistyczne nad Rijadem. Huti uderzają w serce saudyjskiego przemysłu naftowego

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Saudi Aramco, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude oil feedstock is a direct critical input to gasoline and diesel, so a supply disruption reduces availability.

   98% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil is a direct critical downstream product of crude oil feedstock, so tighter crude supply cuts output.

   97% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Prices rise

   PBF EnergyPBF

   PBF Energy's refining operations need crude feedstock, so a disruption should raise its input costs and pressure operations.

2. Hop 2

   LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane) →Prices rise

   Propane (home use)

   A Saudi LPG disruption tightens the feedstock for home-use propane, so retail propane prices are likely to rise.

   92% confidence

   Jet fuel →Prices rise

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Jet fuel depends critically on this feedstock (dependency_strength 0.95, critical), so a Saudi crude supply shock would tighten crude balances and raise its cost.

   88% confidence

   Home heating oil →Shortage risk

   End-Use Combustion & Emissions

   If crude-oil disruption leaves home heating oil scarce, the final use stage is curtailed because there is less fuel available to burn.

3. Hop 3

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   Jet fuel depends critically on this feedstock (dependency strength 0.95), so a Saudi crude disruption that tightens the feedstock market should flow through as a substantial jet fuel shortage.

   96% confidence

   Enterprise Products Partners →Shortage risk

   UGI Corporation (AmeriGas Propane)UGI

   AmeriGas Propane disclosed that approximately 18% of its propane supply came from Enterprise Products Operating LLC, so a disruption at Enterprise would directly constrain a material share of its supply.

   87% confidence

   Propane (home use) →Prices ease

   Ethyl Mercaptan (Propane Odorant)

4. Hop 4

   Steel Propane Cylinders and Storage Tanks →Shortage risk

   Propane (home use)

   Home-use propane depends heavily on steel cylinders and storage tanks (critical input, dependency_strength 0.85), so a chokepoint here would directly constrain propane availability.

   93% confidence

   Ethyl Mercaptan (Propane Odorant) →Shortage risk

   Propane (home use)

   Ethyl mercaptan is a critical odorant input for propane, so a shortage or delay here directly tightens propane availability.

   91% confidence

   Bobtail Delivery Trucks →Shortage risk

   Propane (home use)