Middle East War Triggers New Global Refining Boom
Conflict in the Middle East is prompting new refining capacity and investment globally, shifting future supply of refined products.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is the critical input for gasoline and diesel, and the refining boom implies more output of these refined products.
92% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is the critical input for home heating oil, so added refining capacity should raise its future supply.
90% confidenceNatural Gas (SMR feedstock for hydrogen) →supply upThe refining boom increases future output of gasoline and diesel, and this input edge is critical to their production.
84% confidenceNatural Gas (SMR feedstock for hydrogen) →supply upNew refining capacity lifts future heating-oil supply, making this critical natural-gas input more utilized.
83% confidenceValero Energy →Stands to benefitGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico buys airport fuel from Valero and other local suppliers at market-indexed prices, so a broad increase in refined-product supply should lower its fuel costs and benefit the airline.
68% confidencePBF Energy →Prices riseA global buildout of refining capacity should increase competition for crude feedstock, making PBF's main input costlier; the input is only moderately substitutable and takes months to replace.
62% confidenceHop 2
Gasoline and diesel →Prices riseMore refining capacity raises crude runs and thus crude feedstock demand.
88% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseMore global refining capacity to produce home heating oil raises demand for crude feedstock, a critical 100% input, putting upward pressure on crude prices.
86% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo)
More hydrotreating and hydrocracking capacity increases purchases of CoMo/NiMo catalysts.
82% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Stands to benefitFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC)
More refinery capacity and runs increase FCC utilization.
82% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Stands to benefitHydrocracking & Hydrotreating
More refining throughput raises hydrocracking and hydrotreating activity.
82% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts
Expanded FCC units need more catalysts, lifting demand for FCC catalyst supply.
82% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Stands to benefitAtmospheric & Vacuum Distillation (CDU/VDU)
Higher global refining throughput increases utilization of crude distillation units.
80% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseRefinery expansion requires more refinery-grade hydrogen for desulfurization and upgrading.
80% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive)
FCC additive use rises with higher FCC throughput and new unit builds.
80% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Stands to benefitReforming & Alkylation
New capacity and higher runs increase reforming and alkylation utilization.
80% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Prices easeAeromexico buys fuel from BP at prices generally tied to market benchmarks, so a global boom in refined-product supply should push those jet-fuel prices lower.
74% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseHigher distillate output and hydrotreating throughput increase refinery-grade hydrogen demand, tightening the hydrogen market.
74% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseNatural Gas (SMR feedstock for hydrogen)
Hydrogen demand rises because SMR-based hydrogen production consumes more natural gas.
74% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Prices easeValeroVLO
Aeromexico buys fuel from Valero at prices generally tied to market benchmarks, so a global boom in refined-product supply should push those jet-fuel prices lower.
74% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Prices easeChevronCVX
Aeromexico buys fuel from Chevron at prices generally tied to market benchmarks, so a global boom in refined-product supply should push those jet-fuel prices lower.
74% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices risePipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe)
New refining investment boosts demand for large-diameter pipe and steel used in refinery and pipeline buildout.
74% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseCobalt and Molybdenum Metals (catalyst precursors)
More catalyst production for refinery units increases demand for cobalt and molybdenum precursors.
72% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo)
A refining boom lifts hydrotreating run rates and catalyst reload needs, which supports catalyst prices.
69% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseAmine Desulfurization Chemicals
Higher desulfurization throughput and new units lift demand for amine treating chemicals.
68% confidenceHop 3
Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →supply upThe refining boom explicitly raises future supply of refined products, and gasoline/diesel has a high dependency on hydrotreating catalysts.
84% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Stands to benefitChina Northern Rare Earth Group600111.SS
China Northern Rare Earth supplies 45% of lanthanum oxide and has low substitutability, so a refinery-buildout-driven increase in FCC additive demand should disproportionately benefit it.
83% confidenceHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →supply upNew refining capacity should increase hydrotreating throughput, and home heating oil is even more dependent on this catalyst input.
83% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitNew refining capacity raises FCC catalyst demand, and this 38% supplier with a 6-month replacement lead time is a direct beneficiary.
79% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Stands to benefitChina Minmetals Rare Earth Co.
China Minmetals is an 18% lanthanum-oxide supplier with low substitutability, so higher FCC additive demand should lift its sales and pricing power.
77% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitBASF Catalysts (Refining Division)BAS.DE
A global refining boom increases FCC catalyst purchases, and this 30% supplier should benefit from higher demand and limited near-term substitution.
77% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Stands to benefitShenghe Resources Holding Co., Ltd.
Shenghe Resources holds 12% of supply and faces long replacement lead times, so a global refining boom should translate into incremental benefit from stronger lanthanum-oxide demand.
73% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitBecause 52% of FCC catalyst supply is tied to the United States, the country benefits from higher catalyst manufacturing activity and investment.
72% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitSinopec Catalyst Company (SCC)
More global refining investment lifts FCC catalyst demand, and this 20% supplier benefits despite the longer 12-month replacement lead time.
71% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitAlbemarle Corporation (Ketjen Catalysts)ALB
The refining boom should increase FCC catalyst procurement, benefiting this 15% supplier with moderate substitutability and 6-month lead times.
68% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Stands to benefitLynas supplies 7% of the market, so a refinery-capacity expansion should still provide a smaller but real benefit through higher FCC additive demand.
67% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitChina's 20% share of FCC catalyst supply means it should benefit from rising catalyst production linked to the refining boom.
67% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitWith a 12% FCC catalyst supply share, the Netherlands benefits from additional catalyst production and related investment.
62% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitEven with a small 5% share, the firm should still gain some incremental FCC catalyst demand from the global refining boom.
60% confidenceFluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) Catalysts →Stands to benefitGermany's 8% share of FCC catalyst supply makes it a smaller but still plausible beneficiary of the refining-driven catalyst demand increase.
60% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
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