Middle East War Triggers New Global Refining Boom
Conflict in the Middle East is prompting new refining capacity and investment globally, shifting future supply of refined products.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is the critical input for gasoline and diesel, and the refining boom implies more output of these refined products.
92% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is the critical input for home heating oil, so added refining capacity should raise its future supply.
90% confidenceNatural Gas (SMR feedstock for hydrogen) →supply upThe refining boom increases future output of gasoline and diesel, and this input edge is critical to their production.
Hop 2
Gasoline and diesel →Prices riseMore refining capacity raises crude runs and thus crude feedstock demand.
88% confidenceHome heating oil →Prices riseMore global refining capacity to produce home heating oil raises demand for crude feedstock, a critical 100% input, putting upward pressure on crude prices.
86% confidenceGasoline and diesel →Prices riseHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo)
More hydrotreating and hydrocracking capacity increases purchases of CoMo/NiMo catalysts.
Hop 3
Hydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →supply upThe refining boom explicitly raises future supply of refined products, and gasoline/diesel has a high dependency on hydrotreating catalysts.
84% confidenceLanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Stands to benefitChina Northern Rare Earth Group600111.SS
China Northern Rare Earth supplies 45% of lanthanum oxide and has low substitutability, so a refinery-buildout-driven increase in FCC additive demand should disproportionately benefit it.
83% confidenceHydrotreating Catalysts (CoMo/NiMo) →supply up
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.