Polysilicon plant at risk of closure
A potential plant closure could reduce polysilicon supply, affecting solar and semiconductor manufacturing inputs.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from REC Silicon, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Solar-Grade Polysilicon →Shortage riskWacker Chemie AGWCH.DE
Reuters reported Wacker's Charleston polysilicon facility is at risk of closure, so its output falls; the 12-month replacement lead time makes the supply hit material.
89% confidenceGCL Technology Holdings →Shortage riskIf GCL's plant closes, this solar-grade polysilicon stream would lose a supplier with 18% market share, and the 36-month replacement horizon with low substitutability makes a material shortage plausible.
82% confidenceGCL Technology Holdings →Shortage riskSolar-Grade Polysilicon (9N Purity)
A closure would also tighten the 9N-purity polysilicon stream, where GCL has a 20% share and only moderate substitutability, creating a meaningful supply squeeze.
80% confidenceREC Silicon →Shortage riskMonosilane (SiH₄) — CVD Precursor
If REC Silicon's plant closes, its monosilane output would become materially scarcer, and the 17% share plus 24-month replacement time make the disruption significant.
80% confidenceREC Silicon →Shortage riskA closure would cut REC Silicon's solar-grade polysilicon output, though the edge's tiny share and high substitutability limit the downstream impact.
79% confidenceREC Silicon →Shortage riskDisilane (Si₂H₆) — Low-Temperature CVD
Plant closure would tighten REC Silicon's disilane supply, and the 7% share with 18-month replacement lead time makes the shock meaningful.
73% confidenceREC Silicon →Shortage riskElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
A closure would reduce REC Silicon's electronic-grade polysilicon supply, but the edge implies a relatively small share and the source confidence is lower.
58% confidenceHop 2
Monosilane (SiH₄) — CVD Precursor →Shortage riskSpecialty gases for chip fabrication
Monosilane is a critical CVD precursor for chip-fabrication specialty gases, so a supply hit should tighten that downstream good.
90% confidenceWacker Chemie AG →Shortage riskElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
Wacker supplies 27% of this grade, and a plant closure would directly remove a large share of a difficult-to-replace semiconductor input with long replacement lead times.
83% confidenceElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers) →Shortage riskHop 3
Hemlock Semiconductor →Shortage riskElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
A closure at Hemlock Semiconductor would materially constrain this output because the edge shows a 28% market share, low substitutability, and a 36-month replacement lead time.
84% confidenceTokuyama Corporation →Prices riseElectronic-Grade Polysilicon (11N, for Semiconductor Wafers)
A closure at REC Silicon tightens the semiconductor-grade polysilicon market; Tokuyama’s 8% market share and 24-month replacement lead time support a meaningful price increase.
81% confidenceNippon Sanso MATHESON →Prices easeHop 4
Neon Gas (Semiconductor-Grade, for Excimer Lasers) →Shortage riskSpecialty gases for chip fabrication
Semiconductor-grade neon is a critical component of the specialty-gases basket used in chip fabrication, so a production halt tightens that input supply.
88% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Specialty gases for chip fabrication · Semiconductors and chips
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