OPEC keeps production halted; oil above $100
The headline indicates OPEC production remains constrained, keeping crude oil supply tight.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskThis feedstock is a critical 95%-dependent input to jet fuel, so tighter crude supply should transmit almost directly as a downstream shortage.
96% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Prices riseCrude oil is a major input to jet fuel, so persistently tight oil supply lifts jet fuel feedstock costs and prices; the edge weight is high (0.75).
94% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Prices riseElemental sulfur is a critical feedstock for fertilizer production, so tighter sulfur availability raises input costs for this downstream good.
89% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Prices riseSulfuric acid production depends heavily on sulfur, so a sulfur supply squeeze should lift costs for this input.
87% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseExxonMobilXOM
ExxonMobil's Gulf Coast operations depend on this feedstock, so a sustained $100+ crude market should raise input costs despite partial substitution.
78% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseValero has a material share of this feedstock chain, and limited substitutability means higher crude prices should pass through as cost pressure.
77% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseMarathon Petroleum CorporationMPC
Marathon's Gulf Coast refining side relies on this feedstock, so the tight crude market should mainly show up as higher input costs.
76% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseMotiva's smaller but still material share and 6-month replacement lead time make this feedstock shock stickier and more expensive.
72% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices risePhillips 66PSX
Phillips 66 remains exposed to Gulf Coast feedstock costs, though its smaller share makes the transmission somewhat less intense.
71% confidenceHop 2
Jet fuel →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
Jet fuel depends critically on crude feedstock, so an OPEC production halt that keeps oil above $100 raises the cost of this key input and tightens supply.
92% confidenceExxonMobil →Prices riseExxonMobil depends on crude oil feedstock, and OPEC's halted output keeps that feedstock tight and more expensive, with only moderate substitutability and a multi-month replacement lag.
90% confidenceSulfuric acid →Shortage riskHop 3
Sulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production →Shortage riskSulfuric acid is a critical input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so tighter acid supply directly constrains that downstream sector.
93% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Stands to benefitValeroVLO
Aeromexico buys non-Mexico fuel from Valero at Platts-indexed prices, so crude above $100 lifts the fuel price Valero can charge and benefits the supplier.
82% confidenceGrupo Aeromexico →Stands to benefitHop 4
British Petroleum →Prices riseGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Aeromexico buys fuel from BP at prices tied to market indices, so an oil spike raises its jet-fuel costs.
92% confidenceChevron →Prices riseGrupo AeromexicoAERO
Chevron is named as a local fuel supplier to Aeromexico, and a crude-supply shock that keeps oil above $100 should pass through to higher jet-fuel costs for the airline.
90% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC →Prices riseHop 5
W&T Offshore, Inc. →Prices riseBP Products North America (BP p.l.c.)BP
BP is a major customer of W&T Offshore, and with crude above $100 the cost of the oil/NGL/gas W&T sells to it rises.
74% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Sulfuric acid
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.