Codelco Partially Halts El Teniente Mine After Landslide
A landslide has partially halted operations at El Teniente, reducing copper mine output.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Codelco, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Copper ore concentrate →Shortage riskThe landslide directly curtails Codelco’s copper concentrate output, so the supplier itself faces a material supply shortfall.
98% confidenceCopper ore concentrate →Shortage riskBecause Chile supplies a large share of copper ore concentrate, the El Teniente disruption reduces the country’s contribution to that market.
96% confidenceCodelco →Shortage riskA partial halt at El Teniente reduces Codelco's copper ore concentrate output, and the 10% market-share edge supports a moderate supply hit.
88% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Shortage riskThis downstream good has critical 0.85 dependency strength on copper cathode, so reduced mine output should tighten its supply.
87% confidenceCopper ore concentrate →Prices riseA tighter copper concentrate supply raises feedstock costs for a highly dependent wiring market, which the graph marks as critical.
86% confidenceCodelco →Shortage riskCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade)
The El Teniente halt trims Codelco's supply of this copper product, and the 15% market-share edge implies a material but incomplete shortfall.
84% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Shortage riskMueller accounts for 57% of this copper cathode segment, and 18-month replacement lead times make a supply interruption highly disruptive.
84% confidenceCodelco →Shortage riskThe production interruption lowers Codelco's refined cathode supply, with the 7% market-share edge indicating a smaller but still real shortage.
82% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Shortage riskHailiang's 15% share and limited substitutability make it vulnerable to a copper cathode shortage.
80% confidenceCopper Cathode (Plumbing Tube Grade) →Shortage riskCerro Flow's 18% share and 12-month replacement horizon imply a meaningful input squeeze if cathode supply is reduced.
78% confidenceCodelco →Shortage riskElectrolytic Copper (Conductor Grade)
The landslide-driven halt constrains Codelco's conductor-grade copper supply, and the 8% market-share edge points to a modest shortage.
78% confidenceRio Tinto →Shortage riskCodelco’s El Teniente incident partially halts a major copper mine, tightening copper concentrate supply; Rio Tinto has a disclosed but small 3% dependency on this input, so the exposure is real but limited.
64% confidenceHop 2
Chile →Shortage riskA partial halt at El Teniente directly reduces Chile's copper mine output, tightening the country's supply of copper ore concentrate, a category for which Chile is a major listed supplier (26%).
95% confidenceCopper cathodes (refined) →Shortage riskCopper cathodes are a critical 95%-dependency input to copper wiring, so the El Teniente output cut can tighten supply of wiring and cable products.
94% confidenceElectrolytic Copper (Conductor Grade) →Shortage riskHop 3
ACR Copper Tubing (refrigerant-grade) →Shortage riskACR copper tubing is a critical input to HVAC systems and equipment, so reduced tubing supply should constrain that downstream good.
95% confidenceBrass Rod & Castings (Plumbing Fittings) →Shortage riskBrass rod and castings are a critical input to plumbing pipes and fittings, so a mine-driven supply cut should reduce finished-good availability.
92% confidenceElectric grid transformers →DelaysWinding Fabrication
Reduced copper supply constrains the winding stage, which is the most copper-intensive part of transformer manufacturing, so this process step is delayed.
Hop 4
Mitsubishi Materials Corporation (MMC) →Shortage riskMMC accounts for 17% of FCX's consolidated revenues, so a copper-supply hit that constrains MMC should materially reduce FCX's sales to this customer.
82% confidenceAurubis AG →Prices riseEl Teniente's reduced copper output tightens upstream cathode supply, and Aurubis has a direct cathode input dependency with long replacement lead time.
79% confidenceAurubis AG →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Plumbing pipes and fittings · Copper and electrical wiring · Electric grid transformers · HVAC systems and equipment
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