Ukrainian army stops pumping in southern Russia; headline garbled
The headline suggests a halt or disruption to oil pumping in southern Russia, which could affect crude flows and related exports.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Rosneft, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Rosneft →DelaysNovorossiysk crude export terminal
Rosneft is rerouting oil away from the heavily damaged Novorossiysk terminal, so the terminal's crude-export throughput is disrupted and delayed.
“Rosneft is diverting oil supplies to the Tuapse refinery from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk after the terminal, which handles roughly 14% of Russia's crude exports, was heavily damaged in a drone attack, three sources said on Monday.”
91% confidenceCited →Tengizchevroil (TCO) →Shortage riskElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)
If TCO's processing is curtailed, its sulfur byproduct output falls, removing a supplier with about 4% market share and only moderate substitutability.
78% confidenceTengizchevroil (TCO) →Shortage riskHop 2
Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage riskElemental sulfur is a critical input to sulfuric acid production, so a sulfur supply disruption directly tightens sulfuric acid availability.
88% confidenceElemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock) →Shortage riskPotash and phosphate fertilizers
Elemental sulfur is a critical feedstock for sulfuric acid used in phosphate fertilizer production, so a sulfur supply disruption would tighten fertilizer output.
87% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage riskHop 3
Enterprise Products Partners →Shortage riskUGI Corporation (AmeriGas Propane)UGI
AmeriGas disclosed that about 18% of its propane supply came from Enterprise, so a disruption at Enterprise would likely tighten UGI's propane availability.
88% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskWeatherford International plcWFRD
Russia was about 7% of Weatherford's revenue, and a pumping halt in southern Russia would likely reduce local oilfield activity and service demand.
80% confidenceRussia →Shortage riskHop 4
Sulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production →Shortage riskSulfuric acid is a critical input for phosphate fertilizer production, so a supply shock directly tightens fertilizer and crop-input availability.
95% confidenceSulfuric Acid (Wet Process Phosphoric Acid) →Shortage riskPotash and phosphate fertilizers
Sulfuric acid is a critical, high-strength input here, so a halt should materially constrain fertilizer output.
94% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Sulfuric acid · Potash and phosphate fertilizers · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Propane (home use)
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.