Oil prices near $100 after fresh attacks on Saudi energy sites
Fresh attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure could disrupt crude oil production and exports from Saudi Arabia.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Saudi Aramco, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Saudi Aramco →Shortage riskCrude oil
The attack was reported to have knocked out more than five percent of global oil supply, so crude availability tightens sharply.
“knocked out more than five percent of global oil supply”
97% confidenceCited →Saudi Aramco →Prices riseCrude Oil
Reports of the Jizan refinery attack were followed by an immediate rise in WTI and Brent, indicating a clear upward price shock to crude oil benchmarks.
“WTI crude oil rose $0.59 per barrel to $92.19 and Brent crude climbed $0.62 per barrel to $97.38 in 5 minutes on September 7, following reports of an attack on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery.”
92% confidenceCited →Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Hop 2
Fertilizers and crop inputs →Shortage riskSulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production
A sulfur supply shock directly tightens sulfuric acid production, and sulfuric acid is a critical feedstock for phosphate fertilizers.
86% confidenceExxonMobil →Prices riseSaudi crude-supply disruption lifts global crude prices, directly raising ExxonMobil's crude feedstock costs; the input is only partly substitutable and has a short but nontrivial replacement horizon.
86% confidenceExxonMobil →Prices riseHop 3
Sulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production →Shortage riskThe graph marks fertilizers and crop inputs as a critical downstream of sulfuric acid, so the supply shock should make this good scarcer.
98% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseCrude oil feedstock is a critical, fully dependent input to gasoline and diesel, so a Saudi supply disruption quickly raises refinery input costs and finished-fuel prices.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseHop 4
Home heating oil →Prices riseHome heating oil is wholly dependent on crude oil feedstock, so a Saudi crude supply shock tightens that critical input and raises heating-oil production costs.
93% confidenceThe Mosaic Company →Prices easePhosphate Rock (Sedimentary Apatite)
A severe hit to Mosaic's phosphate fertilizer output would reduce its demand for phosphate rock, and its roughly 10% share of that input market can soften prices.
63% confidenceThe Mosaic Company →Prices ease
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Sulfuric acid · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.